Re: Energy Minister's Speech to Public Accounts Committee on 5th June 2011

June 11, 2011

Basanta Raj Nepal



Basanta jee

With the advantage of hindsight, looks like those who twisted the news around may have been right. Because Gokarna Bista has now gone back on his own statement; perhaps under intense pressure from those who want to mitigate load shedding problem in India (not in Nepal), his own party and those who have mortgaged their patriotism to India. Till 1990 there were people who use to chant that there is no alternative to Panchayati system. Now he is saying the same with regard to export of power which is absolutely untrue. My own assessment shows that in order for Nepal to attain accelerated growth (contrasted with present suppressed growth and merely normal growth), which is required in order for Nepal to reach the same economic plane as India/China, Nepal needs use 10,000 MW for internal consumption within a decade.

Looked at it from another perspective, Nepal needs an installed capacity of 92,000 MW (a lot more than the “famed” economic potential of 43,000 MW) in order for people in Nepal to be consuming 10,000 kWh per capita which is quite low compared to what economically prosperous countries consume (for example Iceland consumes 31,000 kWh per capita – the highest in the world).

This doesn’t mean that Nepal shouldn’t export power at all. But exporting power to India while keeping Nepal in the dark and medieval age (unindustrialized such that youth is forced to migrate) is sheer foolishness and those advocating export of power are suffering from poverty of intellectuality. This attitude forces us into an unenviable situation of exporting power at around Rs 2/kWh and importing power to mitigate load shedding at Rs 10.72/kWh.

With best regards,


Sincerely,



Ratna Sansar Shrestha, FCA
Senior Water Resource Analyst
http://www.ratnasansar.com/


From: Basanta [mailto:basantaraj@gmail.com]
Sent: Saturday, June 11, 2011 4:44
To: Ratna Sansar Shrestha
Subject: {Disarmed} Re: Energy Minister's Speech to Public Accounts Committee on 5th June 2011


Dear Ratna Sir,

Thank you for you response and view.

Yes, Nepalese journalism has never been professional and this seems very far in future too. Even the news stories published in so called big newspapers confuses us rather than making things clear. As you heard the first account view on minister Bista's speech, and how the fact has been twisted. Another news published today on the same newspaper proves this. It has published a story based on minister Bista's speech again where he has tried to clarify the confusion created by the front page story run by the same daily a day earlier.

"बिजुली निकासीको बिकल्प छैन"

http://www.karobardaily.com/news/7997
But I am often amused why politicians always sell the idea of enormous hydro-power potential but never act to generate few megawatts. The development of Nepal has failed to build any infrastructure and the leadership lacks vision. If we consider the same with energy sector, they always forecast the future electricity demand based on today's load which has suffered by ineffective management and inadequate generation. As there is no integrated energy plan this forecast is very low in my view. If rapid industrialization is considered and electricity can be used for other energy uses like cooking, transportation, etc. we cannot forecast exact electricity use in numbers. It would be too soon and immature to say that maximum electricity demand in Nepal would be 5000 MW or some other numbers.

With Best Regards.



Sincerely,

Basanta Nepal