Wednesday, June 18, 2025
विद्युत् व्यापार सम्झौता : नेपालको लम्पसारवादी अर्थनीति
Monday, March 31, 2025
सडकबाट फर्कंदैनन् राजा
नेपाल अहिले चरम आर्थिक संकटमा छ। बैंकहरूमा तरलता थुप्रिएको छ। देशमा लगानी गर्ने अवस्था नहुनाले मानिसहरू लगानी गर्न अनिच्छुक छन्। किनभने सर्वसाधारणमा क्रयशक्तिको अभावले बजारमा माग छैन, उत्पादित वस्तु बिक्री हुने सुनिश्चितता छैन र ऋण लिनेले साँवा–ब्याज तिर्न सक्ने आत्मविश्वास गुमाएका छन्। त्यसैले देशको अर्थतन्त्र चलायमान हुन सकेको छैन। उता नेपाल राष्ट्र बैंकमा विदेशी मुद्रा थुप्रिएको छ, जसलाई उत्पादनमूलक काममा लगाउन राज्य सञ्चालकहरू असफल छन्। तर सरकारका अर्थमन्त्रीले कर्मचारीलाई तलब खुवाउन ऋण लिनुपर्ने शंका व्यक्त गर्छन्।
त्यसैले सर्वसाधारणमा वितृष्णा व्यापक छ र जनता घोर निराशामा डुबेका छन्। यो अवस्था भजाउनका लागि केही निहित स्वार्थ भएकाहरूले ‘राजा आऊ, देश बचाऊ’ भन्ने नारा लगाएर आन्दोलन सुरु गरेका छन्। यही चैत १५ गते राजावादीले विगतमा माओवादीप्रति सहानुभूति राख्ने र नेकपा एमालेको केन्द्रीय समितिमा मनोनीत मेडिकल व्यवसायी दुर्गा प्रसाईंलाई कमान्डर बनाएर आयोजना गरेको विरोध कार्यक्रममा अपेक्षाकृत जनसहभागिता नभएको मात्र होइन, राजावादी दलहरू राप्रपा र राप्रपा नेपालले धोका दिएको आरोपसमेत लाग्यो। उक्त कार्यक्रममा उच्छृङ्खलता प्रदर्शन भयो। हिंस्रक प्रवृत्ति देखाउँदै तोडफोड, आगजनी मात्र नगरेर लुटपाटसमेत गरियो। र, अनाहकमा दुई नेपालीको ज्यान गयो।
सर्वसाधारणले राजावादीको विरोध कार्यक्रम भद्र, शालीन, सौम्य हुने अपेक्षा गरेका थिए तर राजावादीले राजतन्त्रको छवि नै धुमिल पारे। स्मरणीय छ, यी कमान्डरले २०७९ सालमा बैंक तथा वित्तीय संस्थाबाट लिएको ऋण नतिर्ने अभियान राष्ट्रव्यापी रूपमा चलाएका थिए। उनले साढे पाँच अर्बभन्दा बढी ऋण लिएका छन् भनिन्छ। यसरी ऋणको साँवा–ब्याज नतिर्दा ती संस्थामा निक्षेप जम्मा गर्ने र तिनमा सेयर लगानी गर्ने सर्वसाधारणको रगत–पसिनाको कमाइ डुब्छ भन्ने ती व्यक्तिलाई बोध छैन वा संवेदनहीन रहेछन्। यिनको नेतृत्वमा पुनःस्थापित हुने राजसंस्था कस्तो होला भनेर कल्पना पनि कष्टप्रद छ।
राजावादीले २०४७ सालको संविधानको प्रावधान पुनः जीवित गर्नुपर्ने प्रस्ताव गरेका छन्, जसमा संवैधानिक राजाको व्यवस्था छ। देश चरम आर्थिक संकटमा रहेकाले संवैधानिक राजसंस्था पुनःस्थापित भएमा आर्थिक संकट निवारण भएर देश बच्छ कि बच्दैन भन्ने सम्बन्धमा निम्न पंक्तिमा विवेचना गरिएको छ।
आर्थिक अवस्था
देश आर्थिक संकटमा रहेको तथ्य विगतका आन्तरिक आर्थिक सूचकांकसँग हालको सूचकांकको तुलना गरेमा प्रस्टिन्छ। उद्योग क्षेत्रलाई देशको अर्थतन्त्रको मेरुदण्ड मानिन्छ र पञ्चायतकालको अन्त्यतिर २०४६÷४७ सालमा नेपालको कुल गार्हस्थ्य उत्पादन (जिडिपी) मा उद्योग क्षेत्रको योगदान १८.४ प्रतिशत भएकामा २०८०÷८१ मा १३ प्रतिशतमा खुम्चिएको छ, जुन क्रमैसँग घट्दै गएको हो। २०७८÷७९ मा १४.२४ प्रतिशत भएकामा २०७९÷८० मा १३.६ प्रतिशत घटेको थियो। त्यसैले देशमा रोजगारीको अभाव भएर झन्डै ६० लाख नेपाली श्रम स्वीकृति लिएर वैदेशिक रोजगारीमा गएको तथ्यांक छ, जसमा भारत जानेको संख्या समावेश छैन किनभने भारतमा रोजगारीमा जान श्रम स्वीकृति आवश्यक छैन। अनौपचारिक अनुमानअनुसार ४० लाख नेपाली भारतमा रोजगारी गर्छन्। अर्थात् कुल जनसंख्याको एकतिहाइ विदेशमा काम गर्छन् र ठूलो परिमाणमा विप्रेषण नेपाल भित्रिन्छ, जसलाई सरकारले उत्पादनमूलक काममा लगाउन नसकेकाले राष्ट्र बैंकमा ठूलो परिमाणमा विदेशी मुद्रा थुप्रिएको हो।
नेपालको जिडिपीमा उद्योग क्षेत्रको योगदानको चर्चा गर्दा छिमेकी देशहरूसँग दाँज्दा बुझ्न सजिलो हुन्छ। गत वर्ष दक्षिण एशियाली देशहरूमध्ये भारतको २७.६२ प्रतिशत, बंगलादेशको ३७.९५ प्रतिशत र श्रीलंकाको २५.५९ प्रतिशत थियो। बंगलादेशबाट प्रधानमन्त्री शेख हसिना गत साउन २१ गते भाग्न बाध्य भएका कारण त्यहाँको अर्थतन्त्र समस्याग्रस्त नभएर आरक्षणप्रति सर्वसाधारण आक्रोशित भएकाले हो। त्यहाँको अर्थतन्त्र सुदृढ नै थियो र छ। तर श्रीलंकाबाट त्यहाँका राष्ट्रपति गोटाबाया राजापक्ष र उनको परिवार २०७९ साल असार २९ गते भाग्नुपरेको भने त्यहाँको अर्थतन्त्रमा आएको तरलता समस्याले हो। त्यहाँको अर्थतन्त्रको मेरुदण्ड उद्योग क्षेत्र सुदृढ हुनाले अहिले त्यहाँको तरलताको समस्या निराकरण हुँदै गएको छ र अर्थतन्त्र समस्यामुक्त हुँदैछ। बहुसंख्यक नेपालीले नेपाललाई भुटानसँग दाँज्ने गर्छन् तर त्यहाँको जिडिपीमा उद्योग क्षेत्रको योगदान ४९.९६ प्रतिशत छ।
नेपालको अन्य आन्तरिक आर्थिक सूचकांक पनि उत्साहजनक छैन। क्रमैसँग खस्कँदै आएको छ। पञ्चायतकालको अन्तिम दशक (२०३६–४६) मा औसत व्यापार घाटा १२ प्रतिशत, औसत पुँजीगत खर्च ६७.२ प्रतिशत र जनतालाई औसत करको भार ८.७ प्रतिशत भएकोमा बहुदलकाल (२०४६–५६) मा खस्केर औसत व्यापार घाटा १७.१ प्रतिशत, औसत पुँजीगत खर्च ५६.९ प्रतिशत र जनतालाई औसत करको भार १०.१ प्रतिशत पुगेको थियो। त्यस्तै २०५६–६६ को सशस्त्र द्वन्द्वकालमा औसत व्यापार घाटा १६.६ प्रतिशत, औसत पुँजीगत खर्च ३०.७ प्रतिशत र जनतालाई औसत करको भार ११.९ प्रतिशतमा झरेको थियो। २०६६–७६ को गणतन्त्रकालमा यी सूचकांकहरू थप खस्केर औसत व्यापार घाटा २७.५ प्रतिशत, औसत पुँजीगत खर्च २३.७ प्रतिशत र जनतालाई औसत करको भार १७.१ प्रतिशत पुग्यो। अझ २०७६–८१ को संघीयताकालमा त अझ धेरै खस्केर व्यापार घाटा २९.५ प्रतिशत, औसत पुँजीगत खर्च १७ प्रतिशत र जनतालाई औसत करको भार २० प्रतिशत पुगेको छ।
देशमा रोजगारीको अभाव हुनुको ठूलो कारण देशमा भएका उद्योग–कलकारखाना पूर्ण क्षमतामा सञ्चालन हुन नसक्नु र नयाँ उद्योग स्थापना हुन नसक्नु हो भने राज्यले पुँजीगत खर्च गर्न नसक्नाले पनि रोजगारी सिर्जना हुन नसकेको हो। समुचित पुँजीगत खर्च भए रोजगारी सिर्जना हुनुको अतिरिक्त निर्माण सामग्रीको पनि खपत बढेर निर्माण सामग्री उद्योगको सञ्चालन बढी रोजगारी सिर्जना हुनुको अतिरिक्त उत्पादन बढेर पनि अर्थतन्त्र चलायमान हुन्थ्यो। पञ्चायतकालको तुलनामा राज्यको पुँजीगत खर्च गर्ने क्षमता ५० प्रतिशत विन्दुले घट्नु ठूलो दुर्भाग्य हो। नेपालको आन्तरिक आर्थिक सूचकांक उल्लेख्य नहुनाको कारण देखाउँदा राज्य सञ्चालकले पाँच वर्षअघि फैलिएको कोरोना संक्रमण र त्यसलाई नियन्त्रण गर्न गरिएको लकडाउनलाई दोष दिने गर्छन्। कोरोना संक्रमण त भारतलगायत सबै देशमा फैलिएको थियो। तर भारतलगायत देशको आर्थिक स्थिति नेपालको जस्तो दयनीय छैन किनभने ती देशको मेरुदण्ड (उद्योग क्षेत्र) सुदृढ छ।
जोखिम
बैंक तथा वित्तीय संस्थाहरूको खराब कर्जाको अनुपात पाँच प्रतिशतको हाराहारीमा पुगेको छ। साथै खराब कर्जाको अनुपात बढ्न नदिन बैंक तथा वित्तीय संस्थाहरूले बक्यौता ऋण पुनर्तालिकीकरण गर्दै आएका छन्। पुनर्तालिकीकरण गर्नु भनेको समस्या समाधान गर्नु नभएर पन्छाउनु मात्र हो, जसले समस्या अझ जटिल बनाउँछ। अन्तर्राष्ट्रिय मुद्रा कोषले अनौपचारिक रूपमा यो अनुपात १५ प्रतिशत पुगेको शंका गरेको छ। यसका साथै बैंक तथा वित्तीय संस्थाहरूमा गैरबैंकिङ सम्पत्ति पनि थुप्रिएको छ, जुन बैंकहरूले कर्जा असुली नभएपछि ऋणीले राखेको धितो लिलाम गर्दा लिलाममा बैंक आफैंले सकार गरेको घरजग्गालगायतका अचल सम्पत्ति हो।
यसै पृष्ठभूमिमा अन्तर्राष्ट्रिय मुद्रा कोषको सर्तअनुसार नेपाल राष्ट्र बैंकले अन्तर्राष्ट्रिय बोलपत्र आह्वान गरेर ६ वटा विदेशी लेखापरीक्षण संस्थाको छोटो सूची बनाएको थियो। यसअन्तर्गत १० वटा ठूला वाणिज्य बैंकहरूको कर्जा प्रवाह, चुक्ता पुँजी, मुनाफालगायत वित्तीय सूचकको आधारमा वित्तीय लेखापरीक्षण गरिन्छ। उक्त लेखापरीक्षणले ऋणको पुनर्तालिकीकरणबारे पनि औंल्याउनुपर्नेछ। यसको प्रतिवेदन सार्वजनिक भएपछि धरातलीय यथार्थ प्रस्टिनेछ।
यथास्थितिमा खराब कर्जा असुलउपर गर्न तथा गैरबैंकिङ सम्पत्ति घटाउन बैंक तथा वित्तीय संस्थाहरूले धितो रहेको र ती संस्थाहरूले सकार गरेको घरजग्गालगायत ठूलो परिमाणका अचल सम्पत्ति लिलाम गर्नुपर्ने बाध्यात्मक अवस्था चाँडै आउनेछ र अहिले नै पनि धेरैजसो बैंक तथा वित्तीय संस्थाहरूले लिलामीका सूचना निरन्तर रूपमा प्रकाशित गर्दै आएका छन्। तर अहिले बजारमा घरजग्गाको माग छैन र बैंक तथा वित्तीय संस्थाहरूले ठूलो परिमाणमा घरजग्गा लिलाम गर्न थालेको अवस्थामा यसको शृङ्खलाबद्ध प्रतिक्रियाले देशको अर्थतन्त्र अझ द्रुत गतिमा खस्कने जोखिम छ। तर राज्य सञ्चालकको ध्यान यसतर्फ आकर्षित भएको छैन, सत्तालिप्सामा लागेका छन्।
माथिको विश्लेषणबाट निरंकुश राजतन्त्रसहितको पञ्चायती व्यवस्थाको तुलनामा संवैधानिक राजतन्त्र र गणतन्त्रकालमा देशमा आर्थिक समस्या बढ्दै गएको देखिन्छ। यसबाट संवैधानिक राजतन्त्र हुँदा पनि देशको अर्थतन्त्र समस्यामा पर्दै गएको देखिन्छ। तर यस पंक्तिकार निरंकुश राजतन्त्र मात्र होइन, वंशवादको पनि वकालत गर्दैन।
तथापि, राजावादीले नेपालको अर्थतन्त्रलाई समस्यामुक्त कसरी गर्ने भन्ने सम्बन्धमा कुनै अवधारणा व्यक्त गरेका छैनन्, न कुनै नीति, योजना, रणनीति, कार्ययोजना नै अघि सारेका छन्। साथै राजसंस्था पुनःस्थापना हुँदैमा चामत्कारिक तरिकाले देशको अर्थतन्त्र सुध्रने सम्भव छैन। अझ दुर्गा प्रसाईंजस्तो व्यक्तिलाई कमान्डर बनाएकाले बैंक तथा वित्तीय संस्थाहरूका ऋणीहरूलाई ऋण नतिर्न दुरुत्साहन हुन्छ र अर्थतन्त्रको समस्या अझ जटिल हुने जोखिम हुन्छ। यो पाटो शायद राजावादीले सोचेका छैनन्।
भ्रष्टाचार
ट्रान्सपरेन्सी इन्टरनेसनलले गत माघमा भ्रष्टाचार सूचकांकमा नेपाल एक स्थान तल खस्किएको सार्वजनिक गरेको थियो। साथै कालो धन नियन्त्रण गर्न बनाइएको अन्तरसरकारी कार्यदलले नेपाललाई ग्रे–लिस्टमा पारिसकेको छ। अर्थात् नेपालमा भ्रष्टाचार धेरै बढ्नुका साथै कालो धन पनि अत्यधिक बढेको छ। भ्रष्टाचारमा सानातिना नेता, कर्मचारीमाथि कारबाही गरिन्छ तर ठूला भ्रष्टाचारीलाई नीतिगत निर्णयको आवरणमा जोगाइन्छ। भ्रष्टाचारजन्य निर्णय गर्ने प्रधानमन्त्री, मन्त्री आदिमाथि कारबाही गरिन्न तर तल्लो तहका कर्मचारीलाई बली चढाइन्छ। भ्रष्टाचार र कालो धनकै कारणले नेपालको अर्थतन्त्र तहसनहस भएको अवस्था छ।
कालो धन नियन्त्रणसम्बन्धी प्रभावकारी कानुन निर्माण नगरेको र यससम्बन्धी भएका कानुन पनि प्रभावकारी रूपमा कार्यान्वयन नगरेकै कारणले नेपाल ग्रे–लिस्टमा परेको हो। तर कालो धन नियन्त्रणसम्बन्धी प्रभावकारी कानुन निर्माण गरेर यसको प्रभावकारी रूपमा कार्यान्वयन गरे हालका अधिकांश ठूला नेता कारबाहीमा पर्छन्। त्यसैले राज्य सञ्चालक यसतर्फ उदासीन छन्। तर यस्तो उदासीनताले गर्दा उक्त कार्यदलले नेपाललाई कालो सूचीमा राख्ने जोखिम बढेको छ। यस्तोमा राजावादीले भ्रष्टाचार र कालो धन नियन्त्रण गर्ने कुनै नीति, योजना, रणनीति, कार्ययोजना प्रस्तुत गरेका छैनन्। अनि पूर्वराजा ज्ञानेन्द्र शाह पुनः सिंहासनारूढ हुँदैमा भ्रष्टाचार र कालो धन चटक गरेर नियन्त्रणमा आउने होइन।
देशको माया
राजावादीले राजालाई जस्तो नेतालाई देशको माया हुँदैन भन्ने गरेका छन्। राजालाई आफ्ना उत्तराधिकारीलाई पनि राजा बनाउन भए पनि देशको माया गर्नुपर्ने बाध्यता हुन्छ रे। संसारमा १९५ वटा देश छन् भने ४३ वटा देशमा मात्र राजा राष्ट्रप्रमुख छन्। यसको अर्थ बाँकी १५२ देशका नेतालाई आआफ्ना देशको माया छैन भन्ने होइन। त्यस्तो भए ती देशको अस्तित्व सकिनुपर्थ्यो, जुन भएको छैन, हुने सम्भावना पनि छैन। दक्षिण एशियाका देशमध्ये भुटानबाहेक सबै गणतन्त्र छन् तर तिनको अस्तित्व संकटमा छैन। नेपालको जलस्रोतको दृष्टिकोणबाट मात्र हेर्ने हो भने भारतका नेताहरू जति देशभक्त र राष्ट्रवादी छन्, नेपालका नेताहरू त्यति नदेखिएको तथ्य नेपालले भारतसँग गरेको कोसी, गण्डक, टनकपुर र महाकाली सम्बन्धी सन्धिहरूबाट देखिन्छ। बरु राजतन्त्रात्मक देश सिक्किम, जुन कुनै हदसम्म सार्वभौमिकता सम्पन्न थियो, यसको जननिर्वाचित संसद्ले २०३१ साउनमा भारतमा गाभिने निर्णय गरेपछि अन्ततः २०३२ जेठमा सिक्किम भारतको २२औं प्रान्त बन्यो। अर्थात् राजा हुँदाहुँदै पनि एउटा देशको अस्तित्व लोप भयो। त्यसैले राजाले मात्र देशको माया गर्छ, नेताले गर्दैन भन्ने भाष्य शायद नेपालबाहेक अन्य देशमा लागू हुँदैन।
संवैधानिक राजा
राजावादीले राजा आए देश जोगिन्छ भन्ने भाष्य बनाए तर के कसरी जोगिने हो प्रस्ट पारेका छैनन्। माथि उल्लेख गरिएझैं देशको आर्थिक अवस्था सुधार्ने, अर्थतन्त्रमा देखिएको आगामी जोखिम निराकरण गर्ने, भ्रष्टाचार र कालो धन नियन्त्रण गर्ने सम्बन्धमा कुनै पनि नीति, योजना, रणनीति, कार्ययोजना सार्वजनिक गरेका छैनन्। राजावादीले २०४७ सालको संविधानको प्रावधान पुनः जीवित गर्नुपर्ने भनेकाले संवैधानिक राजतन्त्र मागेको हो र निरंकुश राजा ब्युँताउन खोजेको होइन भन्ने प्रस्ट छ। अहिलेको सन्दर्भमा निरंकुश राजतन्त्र स्वीकार्य हुँदैन।
जलस्रोतको परिप्रेक्ष्यबाट हेर्ने हो भने २०११ सालमा कोसी, २०१६ मा गण्डक, २०४८ मा टनकपुर र २०५२ मा महाकाली सन्धिजस्ता राष्ट्रघाती सन्धिहरू नेपालमा संवैधानिक राजतन्त्र हुँदा नै गरिएका हुन्। महाकाली सन्धि गर्दा त त्यसका प्रणेताहरूले सुगौली सन्धिअनुसार नेपालको एकलौटी अधिकार रहेको महाकाली नदीलाई साझा हो भन्ने भाष्य बनाएर नेपालको अधिकार आधा पानीमा मात्र सीमित नगरेर विद्यमान उपभोग्य उपयोगमा प्रतिकूल प्रभाव नपर्ने भन्ने वाक्यांश धारा ३ मा राख्न दिएर महाकाली नदीको औसत बहावमा नेपालको अधिकार ०.५ प्रतिशतमा खुम्च्याएर सबभन्दा ठूलो राष्ट्रघात गरे। महाकाली नदी नेपालको एकलौटी हो भन्ने जानकारी भए तापनि तत्कालीन संवैधानिक राजा वीरेन्द्र मुकदर्शक भएर बस्न बाध्य भए। किनभने पञ्चायती व्यवस्थामा जस्तै संवैधानिक राजतन्त्रमा मन्त्रीमण्डल (कार्यपालिका), व्यवस्थापिका र न्यायपालिकामाथि राजाले अंकुश लगाउने व्यवस्था थिएन र हुने छैन।
संविधानसभाले हाल प्रचलनमा रहेको नेपालको गणतन्त्रात्मक संविधान अत्यधिक बहुमतले पारित गरेको थियो, ९० प्रतिशत सभासदले अनुमोदन गरेका थिए। संवैधानिक राजतन्त्र लोकप्रिय भएको भए यो संविधान संविधानसभाले अनुमोदन गर्नुपर्ने थिएन। स्मरणीय छ, पहिलो संविधानसभा निर्वाचनमा राजावादी दलहरूको प्रतिनिधित्व २ प्रतिशतमा सीमित थियो भने दोस्रो संविधानसभा निर्वाचनमा यो अनुपात केही बढेर ७ प्रतिशत पुगेको थियो। ६०१ सभासदमध्ये क्रमशः १२ जना र ३७ जना सभासद थिए। अनि संसद्का लागि भएको पहिलो आमनिर्वाचनमा राजावादी दलको ०.३६ प्रतिशत प्रतिनिधित्व थियो (एकजना मात्र सांसद थिए) भने दोस्रो आमनिर्वाचनमा यो अनुपात बढेर पाँच प्रतिशत पुगेको थियो (१४ जना सांसद छन्)।
यी आँकडाबाट नेपालीमा संवैधानिक राजतन्त्र लोकप्रिय नरहेको पुष्टि हुन्छ। यस्तोमा राजावादीले अराजक उन्मादसहित हिंसक प्रदर्शनमा उत्रँदैमा संवैधानिक राजतन्त्रको पुनःस्थापना हुने होइन। बहुसंख्यक सामान्य नागरिकलाई रिझाएर २०८४ सालमा हुने आमनिर्वाचनमा दुईतिहाइ बहुमत ल्याएर संविधान संशोधन गरेर संवैधानिक राजतन्त्र पुनःस्थापना गरे हुन्छ नै।
अन्त्यमा,
नेपालको वर्तमान समस्याको जड नै अहिलेका नेता देखिएका छन्। अधिकांश नेता देशभक्त, राष्ट्रवादी छैनन् र देशको माया गर्दैनन्। तिनमा देशको अर्थतन्त्रको संकटलगायत समस्या समाधान गर्ने क्षमता देखिएन भने बहुसंख्यक नेता भ्रष्टाचारमा लिप्त छन्। यो राजनीतिक व्यवस्थामा नेताहरू ठूलो धनराशि खर्च गरेर सांसद बन्छन्, अझ ठूलो धनराशि लगानी गरेर सत्तारूढ हुन्छन्, अनि तिनको कार्यकालभित्र आफूले गरेको लगानीको धेरै गुणा अवैधानिक तरिकाले असुलउपर गर्नेमा सीमित हुन्छन्। अर्थात् मन्त्री बन्नु भनेको देशको नीति तर्जुमा गर्नु, देशको दैनिक प्रशासन सञ्चालन गर्नु नभएर निर्वाचनमा गरेको लगानी उठाउन मन्त्री बन्नैपर्ने अवस्था सिर्जना भएको छ। चैत १३ गतेदेखि संसद्को दुवै सदन विपक्षी सांसदहरूले अवरुद्ध पारेका छन्, एकजना कर्मचारीलाई मन्त्रिमण्डलले पदच्युत गर्ने निर्णय गरेको बहानामा। तिनलाई पदच्युत गरिएको गैरकानुनी भए सर्वोच्च अदालतको असाधारण अधिकार क्षेत्रअन्तर्गत उपचार हुने नै छ, यो संसद्मा छलफलको विषय नै होइन। संसद्ले कानुन निर्माण गर्न छाडेर यस्तो गतिविधिमा संलग्न हुनु वर्तमान व्यवस्थाको कमजोरी हो।
सांसदले कानुन निर्माण गरून्, स्वच्छ छविका सम्बन्धित विषय विशेषज्ञ मन्त्री बनून्। जसरी न्यायमूर्ति कार्यपालिकामा संलग्न हुन पाउँदैनन्, त्यसैगरी व्यवस्थापिकाका सदस्य (सांसद) कार्यपालिकामा संलग्न नहुने व्यवस्था भए भ्रष्टाचार धेरै हदसम्म नियन्त्रणमा आउनेछ। सम्बन्धित विषय विशेषज्ञ मन्त्री बनेमा देशको समस्या पहिचान गरेर निदान गर्न सक्छन्। यस्तो भएमा देशका अधिकांश समस्या समाधान हुन्छ र यस्तोमा राष्ट्रप्रमुख राष्ट्रपति वा संवैधानिक राजा भए पनि कुनै फरक पर्दैन।
२०८१ चैत १८ गत नागरिक दैनिकमा प्रकाशित
Ratna Sansar Shrestha
https://nagariknews.nagariknetwork.com/opinion/1470303-1743391215.html
Thursday, February 6, 2025
Innovative/Lucrative use of Surplus Electricity
In the previous fiscal year, Nepal Electricity Authority (NEA) exported 1,946 GWh surplus electricity (which would have been spilled if not exported, hence it would be called spill energy hereinafter) for Rs 17.06 billion. Similarly, in the first 5 months of the current fiscal year, NEA exported 1,765 GWh of spill energy for Rs 13.04 billion; equivalent to $96.59 million. NEA has targeted to export about 4,059 GWh spill energy for Rs 30 billion, equivalent to $222.2 million, in the current fiscal year.
This is certainly a positive step. If the spill energy had not been exported, NEA could have incurred loss or will incur loss. Because currently, out of 3,242 MW electricity generation capacity in Nepal, 3,075.73 MW is hydropower. NEA owns 583 MW hydropower plants (18.9 percent of the total installed capacity) that generate spill energy especially during the rainy season. Similarly, NEA’s subsidiaries own 492.9 MW hydropower plants, in which the general public have invested in its equity and NEA also purchases the spill energy from these plants. Further, independent power producers (IPPs) own 1,999.77 MW hydropower plants, from which also NEA is forced to purchase spill energy. Because under the power purchase agreements (PPAs) between NEA and IPPs, the former is obliged to purchase all contracted electricity and pay for it. Normally a profit-making organization neither produces commodities that cannot be sold on its own, nor does it purchase such commodities from others. On the contrary, NEA is in an ironic position of not only generating spill energy but also purchasing same from others, and it does not have any choice but to export.
Monopsony Trap
However, India is basically a monopsony buyer with respect to export of electricity. Other goods and/or services can be exported to countries other than India. But due to geographical reasons, electricity can only be exported to India. While discussing this, it should not be forgotten that India is not a reliable and trustworthy neighboring country. Thus far, India has imposed 4 blockades on Nepal for no rhyme or reason: in 1962, 1970, 1989 and 2015. Moreover, India had imposed the last two blockades immediately after devastating earthquakes in Nepal that caused huge loss of life and property.
Electricity is also a kind of commodity, which is called an electromagnetic field, and no matter which power plant it is generated from, it cannot be distinguished during transmission, distribution and utilization as to whichever powerhouse it is generated from and, where, when and for what purpose it is being used. However, India has imposed unreasonable conditions on import of electricity from Nepal. The restriction is on the import of electricity generated by powerhouse built with Chinese investment or by Chinese contractors or using machinery, equipment, etc. produced there.
Moreover, Section 6.7.1 of the Electricity Import/Export Procedure issued by the Central Electricity Authority under the Ministry of Power of Government of India (GoI) in February 2021 stipulates that GoI reserves the right to import/export electricity from/to neighboring countries for reasons of larger policy interest, and same shall be binding on importers and exporters. That means GoI can ban electricity imports from Nepal at any time at its discretion. If this happens, NEA would be in a dire strait.
If GoI is to prohibit import of electricity from Nepal at any time using the discretionary authority mentioned above, it could lead to NEA’s bankruptcy. Because NEA can stop generating spill energy from the powerhouses it owns, which is less than 20 percent. But according to PPAs, NEA cannot refuse to buy spill energy generated by its subsidiaries and IPPs and it has no choice but to buy and pay for it. If more than 80 percent of spill energy could not be exported, NEA may face a major economic/financial crisis, including even becoming insolvent since NEA plans to export spill energy worth Rs 30 billion in current fiscal year as mentioned above. Therefore, exporting spill energy to India is a risky venture in a number of ways. Hence, efforts should be made to find alternatives to exporting electricity to unreliable and untrustworthy India, a monopsony buyer.
Export to Bangladesh
NEA, NTPC Vidyut Byapar Nigam of India and Bangladesh Power Development Board have signed a tripartite agreement to export 40 MW of electricity from Nepal to Bangladesh via India. However, since India was also a party to the agreement, India has restricted export of electricity to Bangladesh generated from powerhouses built with Chinese investment or by Chinese contractors or with machinery, equipment, etc. produced there.
Moreover, Bangladesh does not have a good track record as it has defaulted payment for electricity imported from India. Bangladesh owes $850 million to Adani Power and $23.3 million to Tripura State Electricity Corporation Ltd.: total default amount Rs 117.895 billion. While some industries in Nepal are said to have defaulted a few billion rupees, NEA will have serious liquidity problems if a large amount of money is defaulted by Bangladesh for electricity imported from NEA.
Since NEA has started exporting to Bangladesh too, it may not be appropriate to call India a monopsony buyer any longer. However, there is no substantial difference between exporting to India and exporting to Bangladesh, since the conditions imposed by India apply on the export to Bangladesh as well.
Innovative Use of Spill Energy
Innovative technologies have developed in the world that can utilize spill energy. The Royal Government of Bhutan (RGoB) used spill energy to mine Bitcoins, one of the cryptocurrencies, in 2024 and sold 367 Bitcoins; earning $33.5 million (Rs. 4.6 billion) and is holing Bitcoins worth $1 billion (Rs. 137.46 billion) in stock.
Similarly, a large quantum of electricity is required to process data and to train artificial intelligence (AI), for which spill energy can be used. Data processing and training AI is done at Data Centers.
It takes seven years for new Data Centers in Virginia, USA to have electricity connection with Dominion Energy, Inc.; a utility which supplies electricity to Virginia, North Carolina, and South Carolina states. This fact is not mentioned here to imply that NEA should start exporting electricity across the seven seas to some states in the USA, because electricity cannot be exported that far; not even by satellite. This scribe opines that Nepal’s spill energy should be put to alternative innovative uses that are more lucrative. Either Data Centers from the USA should be invited to Nepal or GoN itself should establish and operate Data Centers in Nepal. It has potential for an exponential quantum of revenue for GoN, compared to exporting to India and/or Bangladesh.
Cryptocurrency: Bitcoin
110,000 kWh of electricity is required to mine one Bitcoin. NEA has exported electricity that could mine one Bitcoin for merely Rs 812,900, equivalent to $5,913. But the price of a Bitcoin is now more than $100,000 (Rs 13.746 million). In other words, GoN can earn $100,000 dollars by mining Bitcoin using spill energy for which NEA receives merely $5,913 by exporting
NEA expects to export electricity worth Rs 30 billion in current fiscal year, equivalent to $218.2 million. It means approximately 4,059 GWh electricity will be exported. This amount of electricity can be used to mine more than 36,900 Bitcoins, the price of which is $3.69 billion at the rate of $100,000/Bitcoin, which is equivalent to Rs 507 billion. This amount is almost 17 times the amount NEA receives from export.
Ban on Cryptocurrencies
It should not be forgotten that Nepal Rashtra Bank has banned cryptocurrency transactions in Nepal under Section 12 of the Foreign Exchange (Regulation) Act. Therefore, legally, the general public can neither mine nor trade Bitcoin. But this ban is not applicable on GoN. Just as the RGoB has benefited from mining Bitcoin by using spill energy, GoN too can emulate.
In Nepal gambling too is banned. However, GoN has issued licenses to 22 casinos and mini casinos in order to allow foreigners to gamble, from which GoN is earning substantial royalty revenue. Therefore, if GoN itself mines Bitcoin by taking the spill energy from NEA, the Nepal government treasury will be enriched by a magnitude.
Data Processing & AI
Just as a normal computer uses a central processing unit (CPU), data centers use 300 watts graphics processing units (GPUs). A standard mid-range data center would comprise 500 racks with 42 GPUs in each rack: in total 21,000 GPUs. Operating 1 GPUs for an hour would consume 0.3 kWh electricity. The cooling infrastructure to avoid overheating of GPUs also would consume some electricity. It is estimated that the all-inclusive cost of operating one GPU for 1 hour would be 1 kWh electricity.
GPU rate per hour in the market is $2.5 to $3.5. Nepal can charge only $1.5 for one hour’s GPU operation. In this way, if the 4,059 GWh electricity that NEA has targeted to export in this fiscal year were used in a data center, GoN could earn $6.088 billion, equivalent to Rs. 836.92 billion. Which is almost 28 times of the amount that the NEA will receive from exporting electricity.
Indian billionaire Mukesh Ambani's Reliance Industries Group has recently announced that it will operate the world's largest data center in the Indian city of Jamnagar in Gujarat, which will require a very huge amount of electricity. India can use Nepal's electricity for northern India and supply electricity within India to Jamnagar. It should not be forgotten that an agreement has already been signed to export 10,000 MW to India. Before this happens, it would be prudent for Nepal to establish and operate a data center and use the electricity that would be exported.
The hardware for the data center including GPUs and server is estimated to cost $225 million and data center building $5 million. Similarly, power and cooling infrastructure is estimated to cost $10 million and networking $3 million. Total initial investment is expected to be $243 million equivalent to Rs 33.40 billion. GoN can earn Rs. 836.92 billion annually with initial investment of Rs 33.40 billion by operating a data center. While, less than 20 percent of GoN’s total budget for the current fiscal year has been allocated for capital expenditure and based on past track record actual capital expenditure is likely to be a lot less. On the other hand, Nepal’s foreign exchange reserve has reached $14.9 billion. Establishing a data center at the cost of $243 million would amount to a revolutionary (not destructive, but creative) step for the upliftment of Nepal’s economy. Also, since the necessary human resource is available in Nepal itself, there will be no difficulty in operating a data center.
Income Tax Exemption
GoN’s targeted revenue collection in the current fiscal year is Rs 1,419 billion, of which Rs 1,284 billion is tax revenue. If GoN is to use the spill energy to mine Bitcoin, GoN treasury will receive more than Rs 500 billion and if a data center is operated, the state treasury would be richer by Rs 800 billion. This kind of revenue could metamorphose Nepal’s economy. Besides, GoN can take another “creative” revolutionary step by exempting the people from income tax; maybe for people earning up to Rs 10 million/year. This would increase the purchasing power of the general public thereby arresting the downward slide of the economy or could jumpstart the economy that has stalled. People in Asian countries like Maldives and Brunei do not have to pay income tax and there is no income tax in the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, etc.
Or GoN can substantially reduce the quantum of domestic and foreign debt; budget for this year is Rs 547 billion. Nepal's public debt has already reached Rs 2,434 billion and by putting spill energy to innovative uses, debt service burden on the state treasury can be reduced by a magnitude, and the same can be utilized for productive uses or social welfare.
Conclusion
When Nepali Congress leader Sushil Koirala was the Prime Minister, India had imposed an economic blockade, for no rhyme or reason, on 23rd September 2015, but most leaders of that party could not muster courage to utter the “B” word. However, KP Sharma Oli, who was appointed Prime Minister on the 12th October 2015 took a patriotic and nationalist stance and succeeded in having the blockade removed. Fortunately, the same person is now the Prime Minister. But unfortunately, the country's economy is facing serious problems. In such a situation, if PM Oli takes the initiative and utilizes the spill energy to mine Bitcoin or operate a data center, the economy will surely take an upward turn. Besides, exempting people from income tax will amount to distributing stimulus packages to the people with decreased purchasing power, suffering from Nepal’s economy that is stagnating or worse. It is earnestly hoped that such a golden opportunity will be utilized forthwith.
Published in People’s Review on February 6, 2025.
https://mypeoplesreview.com/2025/02/04/innovative-lucrative-use-of-surplus-electricity/
Monday, February 3, 2025
खेर जाने बिजुलीको नवप्रवर्तनात्मक उपयोगबाट राज्यलाई अकूत आर्जन
Thursday, January 23, 2025
Anti-national treaties during multiparty democracy
Given the water rights of upper riparian countries, a number of treaties have been signed to supply value-added water to downstream countries by constructing physical structures in the upper riparian countries. Prior to the separation of Singapore from Malaysia, the then Singapore Municipality had signed an agreement in December 1927 with the Johor province of Malaysia to construct a physical structure to divert Tebrau and Scudai Rivers in Johor, in order to supply water to former and former paying some rent for the land used to build physical structure and to sell back some treated water to the latter. Later, in October 1961, another agreement was concluded under which Singapore would pay for untreated water to Johor and sell treated water back. Later this agreement was supplanted by another agreement in September 1962.
Similarly, South Africa had signed a Treaty with Lesotho in October 1986 to receive water diverted from the Senqu/Orange River in Lesotho at an agreed price. These are a few examples. The discussion here is not about the monetization of water flowing naturally in a river. Naturally, flowing river water has no economic value on its own. Water is diverted by constructing physical structures in a river, conducting the spatial transfer of water, transforming it into value-added water and it becomes valuable, while water stored in a reservoir, conducting the temporal transfer of water, is a lot more valuable than water diverted from a river. Both types of water should be monetized based on the scale of importance.
Moreover, treaties have been concluded under which the upstream country receives payment for providing flood control benefits to the downstream country by building physical structures on the river upstream. According to the Columbia Treaty concluded in 1961, Canada was paid US $64.4 million by the USA for flood control benefits for the latter for 60 years.
Koshi and Gandak treaties have been concluded between Nepal and India and India was allowed to build physical structures on the Koshi and Gandaki rivers in Nepal, in order to divert water to provide value-added water for irrigation in India. These structures also control floods in India. Against the backdrop of upstream countries receiving payment from downstream countries for receiving value-added water and for flood control benefits, these 2 treaties have been examined from the perspective of monetization of value-added water and flood control benefits in the following lines.
Similarly, deeming the Mahakali River to be a border river the Mahakali Treaty was signed to construct the Pancheshwar Reservoir Project, mainly for irrigation and flood control, electricity generation being a byproduct. All these treaties are related to water resources and were concluded when the country was under multi-party democracy in different periods. These treaties have been condemned as unequal and unjust towards Nepal and have been called anti-national. Therefore, the interrelationship between the political system and treaties on water resources has been examined below.
Koshi Treaty
After the abolition of the Nepali version of the autocratic Shogunate of the Rana family in February 1951, King Tribhuvan formed a cabinet in November 1951 under the premiership of Matrika Prasad Koirala, a commoner and the first president of the Nepali Congress (NC). However, due to animosity between Matrika and his younger brother Bishweshwar Prasad Koirala in the Party, the former was expelled from NC and as a consequence, he had to resign as Prime Minister in August 1952. After that, Matrika formed a new party named Rashtriya Praja Party by drawing like-minded people from the NC. After that King Tribhuvan formed another cabinet under Matrika's premiership in June 1953 and in April 1954, the Matrika government signed the Koshi Treaty. Since this treaty was concluded at a time when the country was in a fluid political situation and instability was rampant, this treaty is a reflection of the fluid political situation and widespread instability.
The objective of this treaty was to build physical structures including a barrage in Nepal’s territory to control floods and to divert water for irrigation in India. The treaty does not mention irrigation in Nepal. India irrigates 1.323 million hectares of land using 665 cubic meters per second (cumecs) of value-added water mainly during the rainy season.
For ease of understanding, since Lesotho had received US $27.89 million for 1 cumecs of water from South Africa in 2020, India should have paid US $618 million annually to Nepal for the 665 cumecs of water she received. However, India has been receiving value-added water free of charge as there is no provision in the treaty for monetization of the value-added water. Therefore, this treaty is detrimental to Nepal. Since the treaty did not specify its validity period, it is more anti-national as India is entitled to receive value-added water for free in perpetuity.
India had built it at the cost of India Indian Rupee 1 billion 5.95 million, equivalent to US $ 222.25 million according to the exchange rate prevalent in the early 1960s, India is receiving value-added water worth US 618 million dollars annually. Since the project was built at the cost of India, it would have been logical to allow India to use the value-added water and receive flood control benefits free of charge for a certain period of time and after that India should have been required to pay Nepal for those benefits. In the above calculation, the value of flood control benefit accruing to India has not been included.
To add insult to injury India did not recompense Nepal for the inundation and involuntary displacement as a result of implementation of the project. Since Nepal had acquired 903 hectares of land and provided it to India on a lease, Nepal has been deprived of the agricultural produce and forest product from that land for the past 70 years and will continue to do so as long as the barrage continues to exist, which entails a huge opportunity cost to Nepal.
This treaty is worse than the concept of I build a physical structure on your sovereign territory to divert your river at my cost and I hog all the benefits of the value-added water for irrigation and flood control free of cost for perpetuity and “give you a few shillings” and leave you to reckon with inundation and involuntary displacement caused thereby.
It must be because of these reasons that Matrika himself admitted in an interview on Nepal Television in March 1997, 6 months prior to his death, that the Koshi Treaty was detrimental to Nepal.
Gandak Treaty
The Government of India had made unsuccessful attempts to conclude the Gandak Treaty when Tanka Prasad Acharya and K.I. Singh was prime minister of Nepal in 1956-57 and 1957-58 respectively. Singh had even constituted an inquiry commission to consider various 17 points before signing the treaty. But after Bishweshwar Prasad Koirala became Prime Minister in May 1959, his government signed the treaty in December same year, ignoring the points raised by the then Prime Minister Singh.
The main objective of this treaty was also to build physical structures in the Gandaki River to control floods and provide value-added water for irrigation in India, and Nepal suffered inundation and involuntary displacement as a consequence It is mentioned in the treaty that 143,500 hectares of land will be irrigated in Nepal, but there is no mention of quantity of land that would be irrigated in India. Actually, India uses 824 cumecs of value-added water during monsoon to irrigate 1.85 million hectares, while Nepal receives 24 cumecs to irrigate 41,900 hectares. India is reported to have borne Indian Rupee 500 million, equivalent to US $105 million according to the exchange rate prevalent in the 1960s, to implement the project.
Based on Lesotho precedent, India should have paid US $ 766 million per year to Nepal, which is almost 8 times more than the construction cost. However, the treaty did not make any provision to pay Nepal for value-added water, notwithstanding, the fact that one of the points raised by Prime Minister Singh for the Inquiry Commission was related to payment of royalty to Nepal for value-added water that India would receive. Therefore, there is no question as to this treaty also being anti-national. The treaty is even more detrimental to Nepal because it does not specify its validity period, thereby allowing India to receive value-added water free of charge for perpetuity. It remains to be assessed how much flood control benefits accrue to India and are included in the above calculation. Also, no recompense was made for the inundation and involuntary displacement in Nepal caused by the project, which entails a huge opportunity cost for Nepal.
Since the project was implemented with funding from India, it would have been reasonable to make a provision in the treaty that India would be allowed to use the value-added water and receive flood control benefits free of charge for a certain period, after that Nepal would be paid for those benefits.
This treaty is based on the classical concept of I build physical structure in your sovereign territory to divert your river at my cost and I hog all the benefits of the value-added water for irrigation and flood control free of cost for perpetuity and “give you a few shillings” and leave you to reckon with inundation and involuntary displacement caused by it.
Amendment of Koshi & Gandak treaties
Deeming the Gandak Treaty detrimental to Nepal’s national interest, King Mahendra demonstrated reluctance to lay the foundation stone of this project. After he abrogated the multiparty system in December 1960 and promulgated the Panchayati system in December 1962, King Mahendra got the Gandak Treaty amended in April 1964, and laid the foundation stone of this project 4 days later in May 1964, in the presence of the then India's Prime Minister Nehru. But even the amendment failed to fix the validity period of this treaty and many anti-national provisions were left untouched.
When Indira Gandhi was the Prime Minister of India, King Mahendra got the Koshi Treaty amended in 1966. During negotiations for the amendment, an understanding was reached to fix the validity period as 99 years. But when the Indian side brought a typewritten copy of the document for signature, the validity period was typed in as 199 years. The then Canal and Electricity Secretary Laxman Prasad Rimal stated in his autobiography that India had thus deceived Nepal.
Besides getting the Koshi and Gandak treaties amended, no unequal, unjust anti-national treaty related to water resources was concluded from 1960 through to 1990 when Nepal was under an absolute monarchy and Panchayat system.
Tanakpur Understanding & Mahakali Treaty
After King Birendra abolished the Panchayat system and promulgated the multiparty democracy in April 1990 the then Prime Minister Girija Prasad Koirala (younger brother of the then prime ministers Matrika and Bishweshwar) reached an understanding with India in December 1991 to provide 2.9 hectares of Nepal’s land to India to build the Tanakpur Dam without signing a treaty. Afterwards, the then Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba signed the Mahakali Treaty in February 1996, replacing the Sarada Agreement 1920 and the Takanpur Understanding 1991. The proponents of the treaty trumpeted that it was a major achievement since the treaty ensured that Nepal and India would have equal rights over the Mahakali River water (Article 3 of the treaty).
The proponents of this treaty seem to have lost sight of the fact that according to Article 5 of the Sugauli Treaty 1816, Nepal had renounced land West of the Kali (Mahakali) River only and the Kali River was neither made a common river nor a border river. Therefore, the Mahakali River belonged to Nepal in its entirety. On the eve of the ratification of this treaty, King Birendra had drawn the attention of the nominated parliamentarians to this fact. Therefore, although Nepal had the right to over 100% of the water of the Mahakali River, this treaty reduced Nepal's right to 50%.
Moreover, by including the phrase "without prejudice to their existing consumptive uses" in the said Article 3, the second level of treason was committed. Because, out of 730 cumecs of the average flow of the Mahakali River 99 percent and of 150 cumecs of dry season flow, 97 percent was being illegally used by India at the time of signing this Treaty. That means this treaty legalized 49 percent average flow and 47 percent dry season flow belonging to Nepal and illegally being used by India if the river is to be deemed to be a common river. That means Nepal would be entitled to only half of 1 percent of the average flow and half of 3 percent of the dry season flow. Although cent percent of Mahakali River water belonged to Nepal prior to the signing of this treaty, the treaty effectively reduced Nepal’s right to 0.5% of average flow and 1.5% of dry season flow. This not only amounts to unequal and unfair treaties, but it amounts to sedition.
Additionally, letters were exchanged along with the treaty in which it was mentioned that if Nepal was not able to use the water released from the Pancheshwar reservoir, India would use it without paying for it. This is more than a double whammy. Because 42.14 square kilometres (35 percent of the land required for the reservoir) of Nepal’s land would be inundated by the reservoir and the inhabitants therein would be involuntarily displaced. Due to this Nepal would be deprived of agricultural produce, forest products, etc. from the inundated land for several decades (opportunity cost to Nepal), and the rehabilitation and resettlement of the displaced will also be costly. Therefore, the water released from the reservoir is highly valuable. Post Pancheshwar reservoir, of 726 cumecs of lean season augmented flow at Tanakpur, Nepal would be entitled to 358 cumecs. Supposing Nepal would be able to use 8 cumecs of lean season augmented flow, then based on the letters exchanged, Nepal would be deprived of the value of the remaining 350 cumecs, amounting to US $976 million per year based on the Lesotho precedent.
Moreover, if Pancheshwar Dam gets built, the Indian state of Uttar Pradesh would receive flood control benefits. This benefit would be of higher magnitude compared to Koshi and Gandak barrages, which control floods to a limited extent as the gates of Koshi and Gandak barrages have to be opened during heavy floods. Because monsoon rain is stored in the Pancheshwar reservoir and water is released in a regulated/controlled manner from the reservoir, floods are fully controlled during the rainy season. Nepal’s territory would be inundated and cause involuntary displacement therein, there is no provision to pay any price to Nepal for flood control benefits accruing to India in this treaty. In other words, the proponents of this treaty concluded in 1996 did not try to learn from the Columbia Treaty concluded in 1961. Overall, from various points of view, four levels of anti-national activities were committed in this treaty.
Conclusion
Instead of learning lessons from the mistakes committed in the Koshi Treaty, they committed even more mistakes in the Gandak Treaty. Moreover, the proponents of those treaties did not consider or simply ignored Harmon's Doctrine of absolute territorial sovereignty over water, propounded in 1895. Similarly, while concluding the Mahakali Treaty, they not only ignored the provisions of the Sugauli Treaty of 1816 but also did pay no heed to the data of water illegally being put to consumptive use by India at that time and 42.14 square kilometers of Nepal’s territory that would be submerged.
Moreover, they also ignored the provision of monetizing the value of flood control benefits as per the Columbia Treaty. In other words, in the above treaties, neither attention was paid to monetizing the value-added water, nor flood control benefit. It must be remembered that the value-added water and flood control benefits are much more valuable than the electricity. It does not mean that Nepal should charge for value-added water and flood control benefits based on the precedents cited above. However, it also does not mean that Nepal should gift value-added water and flood control benefits free of charge. Further, it is anti-national to provide value-added water and flood control benefits free of charge in perpetuity or beyond the physical life of the barrage etc.
This scribe does not advocate the reinstatement of absolute monarchy or the Panchayat system. Neither does this scribe subscribe to King Mahendra's statement that the multiparty democracy is not suitable for Nepal's climate and soil. Basically, this scribe is not against the democratic system. Although many countries in the world have multiparty democracies, it is rare to hear of anti-national treaties being signed by such countries. Neighboring India also has been a multiparty democracy, since 1947, but she has rarely signed any anti-national treaty. Rather India has succeeded in concluding treaties related to water resources with Nepal that benefit India handsomely and lopsidedly. Of course, Indians are patriotic and nationalist towards their motherland. But in the backdrop of the above discussion, it is difficult to say the same about Nepal’s political leaders and bureaucracy. In sum, a political system cannot be ascribed to bad treaties. It is the political leaders and bureaucracy of a country which determines whether bad treaties are concluded or not.
Published in People's Review of Janaury 23, 2025.
Ratna Sansar Shrestha
https://mypeoplesreview.com/2025/01/21/anti-national-treaties-during-multiparty-democracy/
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