Politics and sale of surplus power and water

February 8, 2012

Sugat Ratna Kansakar

Kathmandu

Cc: Dipak Gyawali; Ajaya Dixit; 'paras kharel'; Jagan Nath Shrestha
Subject: RE: FW: Signature campaign

Sugat jee

Good to hear from you.

When I articulate my opinion, I don't need to worry about "minus politics", simply because I am not a politician (politicians, with some rare exceptions, neither have morals nor, and therefore, any qualms selling the motherland for a few sivelrs) and I don’t express my opinion with any political color. Therefore, people reading my writings and listening (in radio or TV) to me should grow up and take off their tinted glasses (virtual) and try to reach the depth I try to depict (most of the time space constraint restricts full elaboration and superficial people miss the forest from trees). For me India-card and China-card is utter nonsense.
To answer your question categorically there is no harm whatsoever "if we sale surplus power and water". People may be surprised to hear that I too am in favor of selling "surplus power and water". The two important words in the sentence you have constructed are "sale" and "surplus" in the context of power and water. Anyone objecting to sale of surplus power and water is an utter fool. But unfortunately, there are a bunch of "intellictutes" who misconstrue what people like me say in this context.

Projects like, export oriented, Arun III project (900 MW in wet season) reflect intellectual bankruptcy. Eastern Development Region, where the project is located, will be requiring around 800 MW in 5 years time (by the time this project will be commissioned) if we are to attain even normal growth (what we have now is suppressed growth and what we should have been aiming for is accelerated growth not just envy the growth rate attained by India – Bihar in particular – and China). Meaning this project doesn’t aim to "sale" "surplus" power but it is going to deprive the Region of the much needed power required for the industrialization of the area to generate employment etc.

Further, one also needs to remember that this projects doesn't "sell" power, it rather "surrenders". Because selling entails getting best price. The intellectual poverty in all this is manifest in the fact that even at the moment we are importing power at close to Rs 11 while this project will "sale" at around Rs 2 only. Therefore, anyone who loves the motherland should be saying that Nepal should sell power only after saturating power need of this country; not just for electrification but to industrialize, to electrify transportation (to displace petroleum product import) and so on so forth. Secondly we should aim at "selling" surplus power not export at rock bottom prices.

The scenario with water is much worse, hence the objection. The regulated water (I trust you are able to distinguish between water of wet season versus stored/regulated water made available in dry season) generated by projects like West Seti, Budhi Gandaki, Naumure, etc. are being planned to be provided to India free of cost. There are no dearth of fools in this country who even go on to say that why try to sell water (as you have correctly opined contrary to this stupidity) which will flow south in any case. These people forget two things. One, Nepal has to bear cost in terms of negative externalities like inundation and displacement (people just look at the financial cost of building the project). Two, if the downstream beneficiary isn't willing to pay for the "surplus" water (as you again have rightly pointed out) the project should be designed with the water need of Nepal in sight which will mean lower dam height, inundation of lesser quantum of precious land and displacement of fewer people.

I trust you will join hands with the people of 21 district of Karnali Basin to exploit Karnali River system of the benefit of the people therefrom and our motherland.

With best regards,

Sincerely,


Ratna Sansar Shrestha, FCA
Senior Water Resource Analyst
http://www.ratnasansar.com/

-----Original Message-----

From: sugat.kansakar@ntc.net.np [mailto:sugat.kansakar@ntc.net.np]
Sent: Wednesday, February 1, 2012 20:18
To: Ratna Sansar Shrestha

Subject: Re: FW: Signature campaign
Dear Ratna Sansarji,

If a layman ask us "what is the harm, if we sale surplus power and water, thereby earning revenue to nation?", what should be our answer. Better if answer is also in layman language minus politics, and so called India-card and China-card non-senses.

Regards

Sugat Ratna Kansakar

Emulating Karnali Basin model

February 7, 2012

Dear colleague
Good to hear from you. No question is childish. Actually it is difficult to ask a good question than supply a good answer. Most importantly, it is a child that asks important question; like in Emperor's New Clothe.

I am happy that you are planning to get membership for each of your family members.

1. Upon completion of the membership drive the Society will incorporate a company to own the project which will conduct DPR of the project. As an engineer you should be able to figure out that it takes about 18 months for the purpose. The construction could then take about 60 months. You also are familiar with the fact that the time-line that I am drawing here is just a guesstimate. It could take a little more. Within a year or two of commissioning the project, the shareholders should start receiving dividend. Having been involved with conducting feasibility study, preparing design and supervising construction, etc. of hydropower projects, it shouldn't be that difficult for you to figure out all these.

2. We can generate quite a lot of power "like this". To cite an example, let's just focus on remittance; Nepal receives Rs 300 billion/year and just 10% of that is enough for 300 MW. If 2:1 debt equity ratio is adopted the amount is enough for 900 MW. There are many other sources in this country. Rs 100 is minimum. You too can invest based on your propensity to save. Besides, all of this doesn't preclude FDI.

3. The answer is both "yes" and "no." if Nepali people, especially the intelligentsia, continue to behave the way they have been doing so far, we will never be able to stop “south Gaints” from doing whatever they are doing now. This Society has made a good start and if people support as well as emulate them then “south Gaints” could very easily be stopped.

4. I have already charted out financing potential above in # 2 in short. “Market for all the power” manifests in rampant load shedding, lack of industrialization as well as the areas deprived from access to power. Per capita consumption now is less than 100 kWh and to provide 10,000 kWh per capita in 20 years’ time when Nepal’s population will reach 40 million the installed capacity at 50% plant factor will have to be 92,000 MW. Per capita consumption of affluent countries is more than that.

5. I have already made a detailed analysis on that topic which you can access by following the link below:

http://www.ratnasansar.com/2010/06/federalism-and-water-resources-in-nepal.html

6. Already answered in # 3 above. Basically, we shouldn't be sitting on our hands merely because of "grand-agenda" of anyone. Because that will amount to saying: "if rape is inevitable then one may as well sit back and enjoy." This is not acceptable to me and will never be and shouldn't be acceptable to patriotic people like you too.

With best regards,

Sincerely,



Ratna Sansar Shrestha, FCA
Senior Water Resource Analyst
http://www.ratnasansar.com/



-----Original Message-----

Sent: Wednesday, February 1, 2012 15:05
To: Ratna Sansar Shrestha
Subject: Re: FW: Signature campaign

Dear sir,

Nice to know about the campaign. I am ready to sign and pay Rs 100, and even 500 for 5 members in my family. But I have very few childish questions:

1. When Rs 100 can get dividend and how much it can be in year 2069, 2070, 2071... and so on

2. How much power kW, MW, GW can we generate like this

3. Can we stop south Gaints filling pocket of Govt.Officials for holding license for years

4. Can we find financing and market for all the power in Karnali basin like this.

5. Can we dare to stop dividing nation on the name of caste & establish by resources or river basins

6. Can we stop running behiend the grand-agenda of our very good neighbour in south

Regards,

Invest to implement upper Karnali project

February 6, 2012

Dear colleague

Good to hear from you.
No need to be confused. The proponents of the Society (I am merely a well wisher) are confident that there will be enough opportunity for all to invest. In order to implement upper Karnali project to its full potential as a storage project, 4,180 MW, the investment required will be about Rs 300 billion (ball park figure – which will be finalized after completion of DPR) and if 3:1 debt to equity ratio is adopted, equity required will be Rs 100 billion. Without undermining financial capability of the people from the area, I believe that it will not be possible to raise the required equity from the area only.

Therefore, if you sign up (in the signature campaign) it will strengthen the hands of GoN to convert it from a single purpose project (900 MW) to multipurpose storage project (4,180 MW). You can also become a member by paying Rs 100 (minimum), by doing which you will become an investor too when a project company is eventually incorporated.


With best regards,

Sincerely,



Ratna Sansar Shrestha, FCA
Senior Water Resource Analyst
www.RatnaSansar.com


Sent: Wednesday, February 1, 2012 14:35
To: Ratna Sansar Shrestha
Cc: Jwajalapa Yahoogroups

Subject: Re: FW: Signature campaign

Dear Ratna Sansar ju,

It made me confused from the statement "(2) with the investment of the people therefrom to the extent possible which doesn’t preclude investment from other Nepali citizens and even foreign investment.", if this is the fact how it will help by signing the campaign, I mean it should be of specifically people from the Karnali Basin.

Exploitation of Karnali by the local populace

February 5, 2012

To: 'Kalyan Bhattarai'

Kalyan Dev jee

Good to hear from you.

On behalf of the Karnali Basin Conservation Society (of which I am just a well-wisher, not a proponent), I can try to answer your questions:
• In my considered opinion, people from Karnali Basin (21 districts) not only should be accorded preference in the matter but should have first right. From this perspective it is but natural for the question you posed to arise. In order to implement upper Karnali project to its full potential as a storage project, 4,180 MW, the investment required will be about Rs 300 billion (ball park figure – which will be finalized after completion of DPR) and if 3:1 debt to equity ratio is adopted, equity required will be Rs 100 billion. Without undermining financial capability of the people from the area, I believe that it will not be possible to raise the required from the area. Therefore, there is room for investment by people outside the area too.

• Based on the briefing I have received from the proponents of the Society, investment will not be a problem as NRNs based in Europe too have already wished to invest in the project.

• There is no need to be for and against foreign investment. Looking at the success of hydropower projects like Chilime, Piluwa, et al the people investing in such project stand to receive handsome return upon commissioning of the project. Therefore, people from Nepal should be afforded first opportunity to invest and thereby benefit from future stream of revenue. However, if required equity cannot be mobilized from within the country, there shouldn’t be any predilection against letting foreigners invest.


With best regards,

Sincerely,



Ratna Sansar Shrestha, FCA
Senior Water Resource Analyst
http://www.ratnasansar.com/

From: Kalyan Bhattarai [mailto:kdbhattarai2009@gmail.com]
Sent: Wednesday, February 1, 2012 10:56
To: Ratna Sansar Shrestha
Subject: Re: FW: Signature campaign

Dear friend

I am not clear on the mentind issue bt interested to invest little for the Karnali project . I will appreciate to know the following.

• Your message says preference is given to the karnali area people as far as possible -in this scenario how the people other than the karnali can be member ?

• Is such priority model will generate the required investment ?

• Yes i am against the GoN policy of allowing foreign investment for any such projects -but doubt that such model will solve the purpose.

• Thanks Kalyan dev Bhattarai

On Wed, Feb 1, 2012 at 7:52 AM, Ratna Sansar Shrestha wrote:

Dear Colleague
The citizenry of Karnali Basin have formed Karnali River Basin Conservation Society (comprising 21 districts of Seti, Mahakali and Rapti zones). The main objective of this society is to exploit Karnali river system (1) for the people of the area (2) with the investment of the people therefrom to the extent possible which doesn’t preclude investment from other Nepali citizens and even foreign investment.

Development of Karnali Basin by the people from the area

February 4, 2012

To: 'Bihari Krishna Shrestha'


Dear Bihari jee

Good to hear from you. Glad to know that you plan to sign up.

Besides, encouraging your family and friends to sign up there is one more thing that you could do to help them. What they have started is sort of social mobilization and you are aware that these things tend to be costly. Therefore, they need some help with finances: as grant or loan which will be repaid after raising fund through the membership drive. Please let me know if you have any idea. At this juncture they are not looking for fund in millions; couple of lakhs will do.
With best regards,


Sincerely,



Ratna Sansar Shrestha, FCA
Senior Water Resource Analyst
http://www.ratnasansar.com/

From: Bihari Krishna Shrestha [mailto:bks@wlink.com.np]
Sent: Thursday, February 2, 2012 23:40
To: Ratna Sansar Shrestha

Subject: Re: Signature campaign

Dear Ratna jee,

Great idea. I will definitely sign up. Is there more I can do about it?

Very warm regards

Bihari Krishna Shrestha

----- Original Message -----

From: Ratna Sansar Shrestha
To: Ratna Sansar Shrestha
Sent: Wednesday, February 01, 2012 7:52 AM
Subject: FW: Signature campaign

Karnali River Basin Development by the people to whom it belongs to

February 3, 2012

To: 'Jagat Bhusal'

Bhusal jee

Good to hear from you. Thanks for your wishes for success of the campaign which doesn’t happen to be that of mine (as you have implied). The campaign has been launched by the people of Karnali River Basin who want to exploit their river primarily for the benefit of the region and secondarily for the benefit of our motherland. Therefore, I am supporting it wholeheartedly and glad that you too are in agreement with me.

In Nepal politicos, bureaucrats, intelligentsia et al come up with harebrained ideas/schemes (they – including the current one – invariably do so and each successive governments, unsurprisingly, don’t fail to do so) which deserve all the criticisms such ideas/schemes attract. But all of them take their turns to become intolerant of any critique (making one of nostalgic of monarchy!) and brand them “negative.”

Then hordes of media (there is always some qualitative exception) come forward to support for some return and brand anybody finding holes in the harebrained idea anti-development.

The people of Karnali Basin have risen up and they have come up with a brilliant idea: both creative and constructive that will help metamorphose not only the area but the country as a whole. Therefore, it is incumbent on all of us to support them.

No need to doubt that people will not listen to me; simply because it is not me who is putting the idea forward. The idea has come from the people to whom the River belongs to and in contrast to people blaming me for being negative; I am supporting the brilliant idea wholeheartedly.

But, this also challenges you to come forward in support of it by not only signing up and becoming a member but also persuading/convincing your family and friends to do so.



With best regards,


Sincerely,


Ratna Sansar Shrestha, FCA
Senior Water Resource Analyst
www.RatnaSansar.com


From: Jagat Bhusal [mailto:bhusaljagat@yahoo.com]
Sent: Wednesday, February 1, 2012 10:08
To: Ratna Sansar Shrestha
Subject: Re: FW: Signature campaign


Dear Mr Shrestha

This is the right time to draw attention of the concerned for restructuring Nepal. Nepalese society in the present context is divided by sentiment which smells like some hundred years before smelling.

I wish success of your campaign. But i still doubt who listened to you.


thanks

Jagat K. Bhusal
Chairperson
The Society of Hydrologists and Meteorologists Nepal
Po Box 11444, Kathamndu, Nepal.
Mob. 977 9851139357, Res. 97714491971 (Morning and evening only)
http://www.soham.org.np/



--- On Tue, 1/31/12, Ratna Sansar Shrestha wrote:



From: Ratna Sansar Shrestha
Subject: FW: Signature campaign
To: "Ratna Sansar Shrestha"
Date: Tuesday, January 31, 2012, 6:07 PM

Dear Colleague


The citizenry of Karnali Basin have formed Karnali River Basin Conservation Society (comprising 21 districts of Seti, Mahakali and Rapti zones). The main objective of this society is to exploit Karnali river system (1) for the people of the area (2) with the investment of the people therefrom to the extent possible which doesn’t preclude investment from other Nepali citizens and even foreign investment.

Development of Karnali Basin

Dear Colleague


The citizenry of Karnali Basin have formed Karnali River Basin Conservation Society (comprising 21 districts of Seti, Mahakali and Rapti zones). The main objective of this society is to exploit Karnali river system (1) for the people of the area (2) with the investment of the people therefrom to the extent possible which doesn’t preclude investment from other Nepali citizens and even foreign investment.
The society has initiated a signature campaign to draw GoN’s attention to this. You are aware that GoN (all governments so far, including the current one) policy is focused on export of both water and power, depriving Nepal and Nepali people from these in the process. Therefore, I request you to participate in the signature campaign by not only signing it, but also encouraging your family and friends to sign.
Besides, the Society is also launching a membership drive simultaneously, which entails payment of Rs 100; in this way you will be investing in equity capital of the projects in the pipeline in the Karnali River Basin and after completion of the paperwork you will be issued a share certificate for the amount which eventually will yield dividend to you, after commissioning of the project/s.
You can sign up at following locations during office hours:
1. LEC college, NCIT college and Balkumari
2. Ascol and Sarasoti Campus and Thamel
3. Cosmos college, Satdobato
4. Chabahil
5. Shantibatika Ratnapark
6. Sundhara