Monday, February 6, 2012

Emulating Karnali Basin model

February 7, 2012
Dear colleague
Good to hear from you. No question is childish. Actually it is difficult to ask a good question than supply a good answer. Most importantly, it is a child that asks important question; like in Emperor's New Clothe.

I am happy that you are planning to get membership for each of your family members.

1. Upon completion of the membership drive the Society will incorporate a company to own the project which will conduct DPR of the project. As an engineer you should be able to figure out that it takes about 18 months for the purpose. The construction could then take about 60 months. You also are familiar with the fact that the time-line that I am drawing here is just a guesstimate. It could take a little more. Within a year or two of commissioning the project, the shareholders should start receiving dividend. Having been involved with conducting feasibility study, preparing design and supervising construction, etc. of hydropower projects, it shouldn't be that difficult for you to figure out all these.

2. We can generate quite a lot of power "like this". To cite an example, let's just focus on remittance; Nepal receives Rs 300 billion/year and just 10% of that is enough for 300 MW. If 2:1 debt equity ratio is adopted the amount is enough for 900 MW. There are many other sources in this country. Rs 100 is minimum. You too can invest based on your propensity to save. Besides, all of this doesn't preclude FDI.

3. The answer is both "yes" and "no." if Nepali people, especially the intelligentsia, continue to behave the way they have been doing so far, we will never be able to stop “south Gaints” from doing whatever they are doing now. This Society has made a good start and if people support as well as emulate them then “south Gaints” could very easily be stopped.

4. I have already charted out financing potential above in # 2 in short. “Market for all the power” manifests in rampant load shedding, lack of industrialization as well as the areas deprived from access to power. Per capita consumption now is less than 100 kWh and to provide 10,000 kWh per capita in 20 years’ time when Nepal’s population will reach 40 million the installed capacity at 50% plant factor will have to be 92,000 MW. Per capita consumption of affluent countries is more than that.

5. I have already made a detailed analysis on that topic which you can access by following the link below:

6. Already answered in # 3 above. Basically, we shouldn't be sitting on our hands merely because of "grand-agenda" of anyone. Because that will amount to saying: "if rape is inevitable then one may as well sit back and enjoy." This is not acceptable to me and will never be and shouldn't be acceptable to patriotic people like you too.

With best regards,


Ratna Sansar Shrestha, FCA
Senior Water Resource Analyst

-----Original Message-----

Sent: Wednesday, February 1, 2012 15:05
To: Ratna Sansar Shrestha
Subject: Re: FW: Signature campaign

Dear sir,

Nice to know about the campaign. I am ready to sign and pay Rs 100, and even 500 for 5 members in my family. But I have very few childish questions:

1. When Rs 100 can get dividend and how much it can be in year 2069, 2070, 2071... and so on

2. How much power kW, MW, GW can we generate like this

3. Can we stop south Gaints filling pocket of Govt.Officials for holding license for years

4. Can we find financing and market for all the power in Karnali basin like this.

5. Can we dare to stop dividing nation on the name of caste & establish by resources or river basins

6. Can we stop running behiend the grand-agenda of our very good neighbour in south


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