Re: [NNSD] Mirage of illusionary benefit of Rs 45 billion from Pancheshwar Project

August 19, 2009

Mr Saubhagya Shah

Kathmandu

Dear Saubhagya jee

I trust you don't mind my addressing you such. You too are welcome to address me informally (I prefer that, Mr. Shrestha sounds too stuffy!).

I am highly enthused by your sparing time to write to me. Yes, people in Nepal have been taken for ride by using such bunkum numbers for long. However, I too am a non-technical person (not being an engineer) but have come to understand financial and economic aspects of water resource and hydropower and am using the knowledge to ensure that our motherland doesn't get short changed any further. With the addition of voice of people like yourself, we are bound to succeed. (I just wish it isn't too late by then!)

I find you overly optimistic (begging your pardon) in hoping that Makune would have leant from history. However, I do echo your sentiments.

With best regards,

Sincerely,

Ratna Sansar Shrestha

From: NNSD@yahoogroups.com [mailto:NNSD@yahoogroups.com] On Behalf Of Saubhagya Shah
Sent: Tuesday, August 18, 2009 19:46
To: NNSD@yahoogroups.com
Subject: Re: [NNSD] Mirage of illusionary benefit of Rs 45 billion from Pancheshwar Project


Dear Mr. Shrestha,

This was an incisive analysis of the misleading propaganda being carried out by Nepal's water mafia to hoodwink the Nepali public. I applaud the effort you have taken to lay everything in black and white so that a non-technical person like me can see who really stands to gain from this scheme and who will actually lose (Nepal).

I still remember the propaganda campaign a decade or more ago when some of these same politicians were shouting at the top of their voices that Nepal would make US $ 1 b each year from Tanakpur. We know how that went. Let us hope that criticalan analysis like yours will help to wake the Nepali public from its slumber and galvanize a strong voice against the long-standing Nepali political tradition of surrendering Nepali resources for false hopes of extending the life of particular regimes. The political class should learn from the fact that Matrika, BP, Grija actually were out of power soon after signing the major water deals with India. Hopefully Makune has learnt something from history and will not sign on the dotted lines on the Pancheshwor or other deal.

Jai hos,
Saubhagya Shah

--- On Tue, 8/18/09, Ratna Sansar Shrestha wrote:
From: Ratna Sansar Shrestha rsansar@mos.com.np
Subject: [NNSD] Mirage of illusionary benefit of Rs 45 billion from Pancheshwar Project
To: NNSD@yahoogroups.comD
ate: Tuesday, August 18, 2009, 1:51 AM

Mr DB Singh
Project Chief
Pancheshwar Project

Dear DBjee

Fw: My article on federalism

August 22, 2009

Mr Kul Chandra Gautam

Former Dy Secretary General

United Nations Organization

Dear Kul Chandrajee

Thanks a lot for your encouragement. If people fear to articulate such important things even at this penultimate hour, then they are destined to follow the fate of Yugoslavia. Therefore, it is incumbent on all of us who understand these things to articulate it rather forcefully.

Incidentally a few months back at the invitation of Rashtriay Jana Morcha I delivered a speech at Ratna Park on this very topic. I too am apprehensive of the bad things happening to me, but I am even prepared to accept the consequences in order to ensure that Nepal doesn’t disintegrate.

With best regards,

Sincerely,

Ratna Sansar Shrestha

From: Kul Gautam [mailto:kulgautam@hotmail.com]
Sent: Friday, August 21, 2009 21:57
To: ratna sansar shrestha
Subject: FW: article on federalism

dear ratna sansarji,

i am glad you penned this article. it reflects the feelings of many people from all communities who fear to express such views because they will be seen as being politically incorrect "pratigami" by dominant political parties and hyper-charged ethnic activists.

i hope the genuine concerns expressed in the article will be debated and disseminated widely, not just by a fringe party like janamorcha, but by major parties and responsible leaders.

my hats off to you for being courageous in speaking your genuine concerns.

kul g
--------------------

Kul Chandra Gautam
http://www.kulgautam.org/
e-mail: kulgautam@hotmail.com

============================
From: rsansar@mos.com.np
To: ;
Subject: Fw: My article on federalism
Date: Thu, 20 Aug 2009 09:41:09 +0545

Dear Colleague

Nagarik has published the attached article in its today's edition. I am forwarding it to you in case you have yet to read it.

Re: Fw: Mirage of illusionary benefit of Rs 45 billion from Pancheshwar Project

August 19, 2009

Dr Shree Govind Shah
Kathmandu

Dear Dr Shah

Thanks for reverting back. I couldn't agree more with you.

LastWednesday I was on ABCTV live discussing Pancheshwar, too.

With best regards,

Sincerely,

Ratna Sansar Shrestha

From: Shree Govind Shah [mailto:sgs@erma.wlink.com.np]
Sent: Wednesday, August 19, 2009 9:22
To: Ratna Sansar Shrestha
Subject: Re: Fw: Mirage of illusionary benefit of Rs 45 billion from Pancheshwar Project

Dear Ratna Sansar,

Thanks for your email. I appreciate your analysis. The government mechanism and the political parties in the government always advocate the green pasture but not the brown pasture. The problem is the PM and other high ranking politicians do not consult the knowledgeable people who are not the member of their political parties or who are not of 'yes minister type'. The Pancheshwar Hype was was very high till the last Sunday but now gradually fading. Financial, ecological and in-depth social analysis got be seriously done by experts.

Thanks again.

Regards,

Shree Govind

At 11:33 18/08/2009, you wrote:

Mr DB Singh
Project Chief
Pancheshwar Project


Dear DBjee

Re: Mirage of illusionary benefit of Rs 45 billion from Pancheshwar Project

August 19, 2009

Mr Jeewan Thanju
Edigor-in-Chief
Hydro Nepal

Dear Jeewanjee

I am very happy that you agree with my analysis. You may have a very valid point with regard to royalty. And if your line of thinking is right then Nepal will stand to get NOTHING from this project and the treaty. This is high treason on the part of those who signed the treaty.

I wonder if DB Singh will dare to do as per your suggestion.

In view of PM's visit to India I have got similar article published in today's Gorkhapatra, too.

With best regards,

Sincerely,

Ratna Sansar Shrestha,

From: Jeewan Thanju [mailto:jpthanju@yahoo.com]
Sent: Wednesday, August 19, 2009 9:48
To: Ratna Sansar Shrestha
Subject: Re: Mirage of illusionary benefit of Rs 45 billion from Pancheshwar Project

Dear Ratna ji,

I agree with your view point. In the past Nepali people had been taken for a ride such as saying the Sun will rise from west after implementation of the Pancheshower Project. Now there are many rumours of inflated benefits to Nepal from the said Project. This will serve the interest of our neighbours. Nepali people have a right to know the truth.

The benefits from fishery Rs.16 Arabs is highly inflated. There is no substantial fishery benefits from Kulekhani reservoir. The carbon trading benefits of Rs.4.7 Arab will not accrue to Nepal unless it is in the Treaty.

Regarding the Rs. 45 Arabs revenue from sale of electricity, my assumption is below which is dependent on selling rate. (6161Gwh*1000*1000*96% (4% outage assumed)*Rs.4.60/unit (max. price = 20% more than 4.95cents) = Rs. 27.20 Arabs

Like in 50% share of water to Nepal, the actual happened to be 3.5%, we do not know what surprise there will be in the price determined by the avoided cost basis.

Regarding the energy royalty & capacity royalty I am not sure as GON is the half owner of the Project. GON collecting royalty from itself ?. It is certainly useful in determining cost price & selling price for electricity.

It is my suggestion that Mr. DB Singh being Chief of the Pancheshower project, must rectify the previous inflated figures by releasing Press Release.

Thanks for pointing the mistakes at the right time of PM's visit to India.

Regards
Jeewan Thanju

Re: My article on federalism

August 22, 2009

Dr Tilak Shrestha

Tilak ju

I have indeed been following email correspondence on the subject very closely and I am aware of the names you have been called and I have ventured to write these articles full well knowing (and notwithstanding!) what names I might be called.

I am a fiercely chauvinistic Newar and in my student life I never studied Nepali as long as there was an opportunity to study Nepal Bhasha. I am very proud of being a Newar, for its language, culture, architecture, etc. The Khas people don’t even have their own script and they aren’t that rich in culture (they are borrowing most of our cultural practices now and that makes me very proud) but we have our own scripts (unfortunately, I have yet to learn these). However, my struggle in life has forced me to learn Nepali language on my own such that these days I am mostly requested to correct things written in Nepali by my Khas colleagues!

Having prefaced what I wanted to say with the above paragraph, I will now try to respond to you. If people were to look around they will realize that Newars, for example, in India have lost their identity (language, culture, etc.). In other words, the chances of us preserving our identity is very high in Nepal but not outside. But if the abstract things in the aspirations of federalism are to be implemented, it is highly likely that it will lead to disintegration of Nepal. It may sound paradoxical, but I see the need to ensure that Nepal doesn’t disintegrate in order to preserve our Newa identity. If people from other communities were to read these lines it is certain that they will call me selfish, self-centered and self-serving. I am prepared to accept being called as such because I know enough to understand that my Newa identity has very little chance of survival if Nepal doesn’t survive.

I don’t need to repeat here what I have written in my articles and, in my considered opinion, fragmentation of Nepal into various provinces in the name of federalism will lead to its disintegration. I get goose pimples when I think that Yugoslavia has vanished from the map of the world for this very reason. Unfortunately, things weren’t limited to this. It has rather spun off into ethnic cleansing with a lot of people dead. Multi-ethnic couples have been torn apart. I even dread to wonder what will happen to people with non Newa spouse in Nepal if Nepal is to emulate unfortunate ways of Yugoslavia.

As a student of economics I also don’t support the idea from the perspective of economic viability; one Nepal is too small to be further fragmented and more importantly each small province will not be sustainable on its own. Besides, the concept of right to self determination will be like a boon that Bhasmashur got.

All of the above may not matter to those who are settled abroad. But for the likes of us who prefer to slug it out here (notwithstanding our US degrees that will ensure luxurious life style there), the only way to ensure survival of Newa identity lies in survival of Nepal. Therefore, I beseech those who want fragmentation of Nepal into various provinces, whether in ethnic lines or otherwise, to read my articles once more and come up with way outs to the risks I have mentioned. If we could find viable measures for the purpose, I am willing and prepared to be a champion of federalism.

With best regards,

Sincerely,

Ratna Sansar Shrestha

From: nesocamails@googlegroups.com [mailto:nesocamails@googlegroups.com] On Behalf Of Tilak Shrestha
Sent: Thursday, August 20, 2009 10:52
To: nesocamails@googlegroups.com
Subject: [NESOCA Mail #2909] Re: My article on federalism

Ratna Ju

Jwajalapa

I also thought along the same line. I merely mentioned that we have to do some serious thinking on the consequences of ethnic division of Nepal. I was branded anti_Newar, Bahunbadi, Raja badi, Chalachitrakar badi etc. However, recently my status has been upgraded from anti-Newar to agent of anti-Newar. Not too bad. Hoping your article would provoke objective analysis of the ground realities, and resultant policies.

Subhaye,

Tilak Shrestha, Ph.D.

Date: Thu, Aug 20, 2009 at 10:19 AM
Subject: Fw: My article on federalism

Dear Colleague
Nagarik has published the attached article in its today's edition. I am forwarding it to you in case you have yet to read it.Please do feel free to forward it those who you think should read this article or would like to read it.

Thanks.

With best regards,

Sincerely,

Ratna Sansar Shrestha, FCA

Re: Sharing water resources

August 17, 2009

Dr Mohan Man Sainju
Former Vice Chairman
National Planning Commission

Dear Dr Sainju

I am very happy.

With best regards,

Sincerely,


Ratna Sansar Shrestha

From: Mohan Man Sainju [mailto:mohanman_sainju@hotmail.com]
Sent: Saturday, August 15, 2009 22:51
To: Ratna Sansar Shrestha
Subject: RE: My article

Ratnasansarji:

Thanks and I agree with you.

Sainju

From: rsansar@mos.com.np
To: mohanman_sainju@hotmail.com
Subject: RE: My article
Date: Sat, 15 Aug 2009 07:13:37 +0545

Dear Dr Sainju

I couldn’t agree more with you that there is a need for thorough analysis before a decision is taken. I just would like to point out that local ownership concept has been taken to the extreme by the people of Manag where 7 people from Gorkha were murdered in cold blood.

With best regards,

Sincerely,


Ratna Sansar Shrestha

From: Mohan Man Sainju [mailto:mohanman_sainju@hotmail.com]
Sent: Friday, August 14, 2009 19:47
To: Ratna Sansar Shrestha
Subject: RE: My article

Ratna Sansarji:

Thanks for sharing the piece onWater Resources and congratulate you on raising key issues.Whereas I am in full agreement on the overall parameters of your argument we can not neglect the evidences shown allover on the issue of community participation and ownership of natural resourses at the local level.This means a thorough anslyses at the expert level is in order before a political decision is taken.

Thanking you,

Sainju

From: rsansar@mos.com.np
Subject: Fw: My article
Date: Fri, 14 Aug 2009 11:32:24 +0545

Sharing water resources

Water resources will be the next contentious issue in a federal Nepal

Right to self determination and indigenous rights

August 16, 2009

Mr Bishwa Kanta Mainali

Senior Advocate

Dear Bishwa Kantajee

Thanks a lot for reverting back and agreeing with me. These issues will have to be raised at the national level such that we don’t have to repent in leisure after making a mistake in haste.

With best regards,

Sincerely,

Ratna Sansar Shrestha

From: Bishwa K. Mainali [mailto:bishwakm@gmail.com]

Sent: Saturday, August 15, 2009 21:01

To: Ratna Sansar Shrestha

Subject: Re: Fw: My article

Dear Ratnaji,

Thank you for your article.You are right.We are deepening the conflict in the name of right to self determination and indigenous rights..We have to discuss in time.Federalism for all and all should be benefited.You have raised a very practical and thought provoking issue.

Bishwa Mainali