Sunday, January 30, 2011

RE: Mny-many thanks for your very-very good nationalistic article about Pancheshore By D. R. Prasai

January 30, 2011
Dirgha Raj Prasai
Kathmandu

Dirgha Raj jee


I am glad that you now understand the spirit behind my writings. I need people like you to support in my crusade.

I do have plans to write an article on Koshi High Dam. But I have number of other topics on the front burner and I prefer to write based on situational context that develops on the ground.

With best regards,


Sincerely,



Ratna Sansar Shrestha, FCA
Senior Water Resource Analyst
http://www.ratnasansar.com/



-----Original Message-----
From: Dirgha Raj Prasai [mailto:dirgharajprasai@gmail.com]
Sent: Friday, January 28, 2011 8:51
To: Ratna Sansar Shrestha
Subject: Re: Mny-many thanks for your very-very good nationalistic article about Pancheshore By D. R. Prasai


Dear Mr. Ratna Sansar Shrestha Jee !

Please, there is no confusion about your analysis. You have been fighting only for equal right between Nepal & India on Pancheshore as well as other projects in Nepal. I have known you very well.

Please write about Koshi High Dam.

OK ?


Dirgha Raj

Saturday, January 29, 2011

RE: Water Electricity

January 29, 2011
Tilak Shrestha
USA


Tilak ju

No need to feel sorry. For some strange reason most people make similar mistake. Even the chief justice of Supreme Court once, when I was appearing in a hearing on west Seti project, enquired with me if I was an engineer. (I pleaded against the project as it doesn’t serve Nepal’s interest; actually it is detrimental to Nepal’s interest, in connection with a PIL writ petition in the capacity of a legal practitioner on pro bono basis). On the other hand, most of the engineers feel and even talk as if hydropower is their exclusive domain and many of them has made amply clear time and again that I am not welcome to talk, write about hydropower. This doesn’t deter me. It is far from true that hydropower is their exclusive domain. They would have expert knowledge from technical perspective but not from non-technical perspective. This has come to light time and again with them making silly mistakes.

Indeed, a number of engineering disciplines are involved in the implementation of hydropower like civil, electrical, mechanical, geotechnical, etc. Additionally, it also needs technical experts from the disciplines of hydrologists, environmentalists, etc. However, I am none of these and in none of my articles/papers I have penned so far deals with any of technical issues for which I am not qualified. A person becomes an engineer/technical person by studying and I too have acquired certain level of technical knowledge by self study. But I still don’t write on technical issues at all, I merely use the knowledge to check veracity of, for example, financial analysis done by technical people. A good example on hand is Pancheshwar project about which a huge mirage is being created. At the time of signing of Mahakali treaty, the politicos led us to believe that Nepal will benefit by Rs 120 billion which kept on shrinking to Rs 45 billion and eventually to Rs 35 billion. An ordinary student of economics/finance is, mostly, not in a position to check whether that number is correct or not. However, having understood the technicalities, I happen to know that Rs 35 billion is not what Nepal stands to benefit by; that amount is merely gross sale proceed (by selling 6,161 GWh at Rs 5.60/kWh) and Nepal, other things remaining the same, stands to earn only Rs 7 billion at the rate of 25% which is the rate of return the project proponents say the project will achieve as, according to that person Nepal will have to invest Rs 28 billion in equity. I have arrived at this conclusion from, nothing fancy but, simple arithmetic. I have thrown gauntlet at the person churning out Rs 35 billion story and he hasn’t yet dared to pick it up.

What that engineer, dabbling in financial analysis, has missed is the qualifying clause I have used above: “other things remaining the same”. Nepal doesn’t have necessary funding to invest in this particular project and if Nepal is to borrow money to invest, then the return will further shrink. Additionally, the engineer strutting around as a financial expert, has used the rate of Rs 5.60 wrongly as the highest India so far has offered is US 5 ¢ and at this rate Nepal will be incurring a loss of Rs 5 billion, even if Nepal didn’t need to borrow to invest in equity. I have thrown light on this aspect in my article last Sunday, but, due to space constraint of the daily, I was unable to analyze the impact of time overrun or cost overrun which will put Nepal in a deep hole. One needs to remember that none of the projects implemented so far in Nepal have succeeded to avoid these two risks.

The proponents of Pancheshwar project are also prepared to surrender to India what rightfully belongs to Nepal, to the extent of deeming that irrigating 93,000 ha in Nepal and 1.6 million in India is equal sharing. What needs to be understood is that my intention is not to have Pancheshwar project not implemented. My intention is to ensure that Nepal gets maximum return for each penny it invests and each inch of land that is used to build the project. Similarly, each drop of water that is stored in the reservoir, if built, should work in Nepal's interest; not in that of India. Additionally, each person displaced by the project will suffer quite a lot and I am prepared only to have one Nepali citizen suffer only if 100 other people in Nepal are to benefit. In other words, Nepali people should be prepared to sacrifice for the betterment/benefit of Nepal. The motto is: no sacrifice by Nepali people in vain (in my considered opinion benefit to India is a sacrifice in vain).

One thing is definitely true and I thank you for articulating that I write my articles/papers with passion. I have taken up the issue of water resources, not just hydropower, not merely as a campaign but a crusade. With appreciative readers like you I can continue with my crusade till I survive in this world.

With best regards,


Sincerely,


Ratna Sansar Shrestha, FCA
Senior Water Resource Analyst
www.RatnaSansar.com



From: Tilak Shrestha [mailto:tilakbs@hotmail.com]
Sent: Friday, January 28, 2011 8:45

Ratna JU
Jwajalapa

Ratna Ju, Sorry about misunderstanding Ratna Ju's qualification. However, I have read many of your articles on 'water and electricity problems' that you are one of the most knowledgeable person on the issue. More than that I do appreciate your passion to do some thing about it.

Friday, January 28, 2011

RE: Mny-many thanks for your very-very good nationalistic article about Pancheshore

January 28, 2011

Dirgha Raj Prasai
Kathmandu

Dirgha Raj jee

Good to hear from you and I am obliged to you for your laudatory comments about me.

You may have misunderstood me. My intention is not to have Pancheshwar project not implemented. My intention is to ensure that Nepal gets maximum return for each penny it invests and each inch of land that is used to build the project. Similarly, each drop of water that is stored in the reservoir, if built, should work in Nepal's interest; not in that of India. Additionally, each person displaced by the project will suffer quite a lot and I am prepared only to have one Nepali citizen suffer only if 100 other people in Nepal are to benefit. In other words, Nepali people should be prepared to sacrifice for the betterment of Nepal; no sacrifice by Nepali people in vain (in my considered opinion benefit to India is a sacrifice in vain).

With best regards,


Sincerely,

Ratna Sansar Shrestha, FCA
Senior Water Resource Analyst
www.RatnaSansar.com

-----Original Message-----
From: Dirgha Raj Prasai [mailto:dirgharajprasai@gmail.com]
Sent: Monday, January 24, 2011 11:42
To: rsansar@mos.com.np
Subject: Mny-many thanks for your very-very good nationalistic article about Pancheshore By D. R. Prasai

Dear Ratna Sansar Jee !
Thanks.
Actually, you are 'Napal Sansar' who is always representing the Nepalese nationality and its natural resourches.
Dear Sir ! I read your article already in Gorkhapatra about- Pancheshore.
Very good article. I think- due to your strong analysis, this project will not impliment.
Thanks.

With best wishes-
Dirgha Raj Prasai

Wednesday, January 26, 2011

RE: No respite from load shedding by implementing Pancheshwar

January 26, 2011
Prabin D. Joshi, FCA
Partner
JB Rajbhandary & DiBins
Chartered Accountants


Dear Prabin


I am delighted to know that you find it “very much enlightening.” It means I have succeeded in my endeavor.


With best regards,



Sincerely,



Ratna Sansar Shrestha, FCA
Senior Water Resource Analyst
http:www.RatnaSansar.com

From: Prabin D Joshi, FCA [mailto:pdjoshi@mos.com.np]
Sent: Monday, January 24, 2011 10:22
To: Ratna Sansar Shrestha
Subject: Re: No respite from load shedding by implementing Pancheshwar


Dear Ratna Dai,

It was very much enlightening.

Regards


Prabin D. Joshi, FCA
Partner
JB Rajbhandary & DiBins
Chartered Accountants

----- Original Message -----

From: Ratna Sansar Shrestha
To: Ratna Sansar Shrestha
Sent: Sunday, January 23, 2011 7:20 PM
Subject: FW: No respite from load shedding by implementing Pancheshwar

Tuesday, January 25, 2011

RE: FW: No respite from load shedding by implementing Pancheshwar

January 24, 2011
Mr Kishor Uprety
The World Bank


Kishor jee

I am delighted that you find it interesting. I have simply used rudimentary arithmetic to make my point. Due to space constraint of the daily I was unable to throw light on what kind of soup Nepal will land up in if this project was to incur cost/time overrun during implementation.

With best regards,


Sincerely,



Ratna Sansar Shrestha, FCA
Senior Water Resource Analyst
http:www.RatnaSansar.com


From: Kuprety@worldbank.org [mailto:Kuprety@worldbank.org]
Sent: Sunday, January 23, 2011 19:54
To: Ratna Sansar Shrestha
Subject: Re: FW: No respite from load shedding by implementing Pancheshwar

Dear Ratna Sansar Jee

Many thanks. Very interesting.

Regards

Kishor

Monday, January 24, 2011

Thanks for your article on Pancheshwar

January 24, 2011
Prof. Dr Mohan Lohani
Tribhuvan University


Dear Prof. Lohani

I really got bugged looking at the way she was treated as if she was queen regent. To add insult to injury she “forced” energy minister to make that statement which was highly abhorrent to me. Besides, it was high time that I deconstructed the myth of “sun rising from the west” upon implementation of Pancheshwar. It is actually simple arithmetic but people who have mortgaged their soul for a few silvers have been and had been going about on a disinformation campaign about 35 billion. I look forward to receiving further comments when you are ready.

It will be my pleasure to help Ram Babu jee. He is welcome to contact me by email or phone me (at 435-4698 or 435-1946; or 97410 67616) to fix an appointment.

With best regards,

Sincerely,


Ratna Sansar Shrestha, FCA
Senior Water Resource Analyst
http:www.RatnaSansar.com



From: Mohan Lohani [mailto:m_p_lohani@yahoo.com]
Sent: Sunday, January 23, 2011 23:31
To: Ratna Sansar Shrestha
Cc: rkdhakal@hotmail.com
Subject: Thanks for your article and request for cooperation

Dear Ratna Sansarji,

Thanks for your article and I'll give yu my feedback after I have gone through it in detail. But in the opening sentences,you have rightly pointed out the recent visit of Indian foreign secretary as something of a viceroy's visit.I had made a similar comment in my emails to some of my intimate friends.

I now request you to help a Nepali diplomat who is currently working on a doctoral dissertation on cooperation in shared water resources in South Asia.Please share with him your knowledge in the field and also yu may recommend some reference books.I understand that he has already met some experts like Deepak Gyawali, Dwarika Dhungel, Ajay Dixit and Surya Nath Upadhyay.The scholar who is Ram Babu Dhakal will contact you and I have given him your email address since I don't know your telephone no.I'll return home from the US in about 3 weeks from now.

With regards,

Mohan Lohani

--- On Sun, 1/23/11, Ratna Sansar Shrestha wrote:

From: Ratna Sansar Shrestha rsansar@mos.com.np
Subject: FW: No respite from load shedding by implementing Pancheshwar

Sunday, January 23, 2011

पंचेश्वर बनाएर लोडसेिडंगबाट मुक्ती पाइन्न

आफ्नो समकक्षी परराष्ट्र सचिव मदन भट्टराईको निमन्त्रणामा नेपाल आएका भारतीय बिदेश मामिला सचिव निरुपमा रावको कृयाकलाप हेर्दा छिमेकी मुलुकका कर्मचारीको भ्रमण नभएर भाइसरायले उपनिवेसको भ्रमण गरे जस्तो देखियो । नेपालका मन्त्रीहरु नैं भारत भ्रमणमा जांदा आफ्नो समकक्षीसंग समेत प्रायजसो भेट नपाउने र प्रधानमन्त्री तथा राष्ट्रपतिसंग भेट्ने कल्पनातित पनि नहुने पृष्ठभूमिमा सम्बन्धित मन्त्री (परराष्ट्र)संग मात्र नभेटेर प्रधानमन्त्री मात्र होइन राष्ट्रपतिसंग समेत भेटे । यसबाट नेपालीको स्वाभिमानमा आंच आएको मात्र नभएर सार्वभौमसत्तामा नैं शंका उत्पन्न गरिएकोछ र नेपाल पराधीन छ कि भन्ने झझल्को दिएकोछ । यिनको आग्रहमा नेपालका उर्जा मन्त्रीले पंचेश्वर लगायतका निकासीमूलक जलबिद्युत आयोजनाहरुको निर्माण सुनिश्चित गर्ने आश्वासन दिएकाछन् । पूर्व प्रधानमन्त्री प्रचण्डले पनि भारतको तेहरी बांधको निरिक्षणको क्रममा यहि प्रतिबद्धता जनाएका थिए ।

निकासीमूलक जलबिद्युत आयोजना
यस परिवेशमा पंचेश्वर कार्यान्वयनको लागि आवश्यक भनिएको रकमको आधा १ सय ११ अर्ब रुपैया नेपालले किन लगानि गर्ने भन्ने सम्बन्धमा स्पष्ट हुनुपर्छ । महाकाली सन्धीको धारा ३ को उपधारा २ अनुसार छिमेकी मुलुकहरुको दुई किनाराहरुमा समान जडित क्षमताको बिद्युत आयोजना निर्माण तथा संचालन गर्ने र उपधारा ३ अनुसार लाभको अनुपातमा लगानि गर्ने व्यवस्था छ । अर्थात आयोजनाबाट उत्पादन हुने आधा बिजुलीमा नेपालको हक स्थापित गर्न लगानि पनि आधा गर्नुपर्नेछ । अधिकांश राजनीतिकर्मीले, कर्मचारीतन्त्रले तथा बुद्धिजीविले बुझे झैं र यो विषयमा धेरै दखल नराख्ने नेपालीहरुलाई भ्रमित पार्न खोजिए झैं यो आयोजना कार्यान्वयन भएकै कारणले त्यत्तिकै आधा बिजुलीमा नेपालको हक स्थापित हुने होइन ।

लोडसेिडंगको आतंक
झण्डै ७ सय मेगावाट जडित क्षमता भएतापनि गत वर्ष ८ सय ८५ मेगावाट उच्चतम मांग हुंदा ३ सय मेगावाट भन्दा कम बिद्युत उत्पादन भएर १४ घण्टा लोडसेिडंग खेप्नपर् यो भने यो वर्ष अझ बढी लोडसेिडंग हुनेछ । नेपाल बिद्युत प्राधिकरणले यस वर्ष उच्चतम मांग ९ सय ६७ मेगावाट हुने प्रक्षेपण गरेकोले लोडसेिडंग शुन्यमा झार्न जडित क्षमता २५ सय मेगावाट हुनुपर्छ । जडित क्षमता ७ सय मेगावाटबाट २५ सय तत्कालै पुर् याउन नसकिने, ५ वर्ष जति लागेमा त्यसबेला उच्चतम मांग १५ सय मेगावाट प्रक्षेपित हुनाले लोडसेिडंगबाट उन्मुक्ति पाउन जडित क्षमता ४५ सय मेगावाट चाहिन्छ र ३८ सय मेगावाट जडित क्षमता थपिनुपर्ने हुन्छ । १ सय ११ अर्ब रुपैंया पंचेश्वरमा लगानि गरेर ३३ सय ६० मेगावाटमा नेपालको हक स्थापित हुनेहुनाले त्यसपछि लोडसेिडंगबाट उन्मुक्ति पाईने आशा धेरैले पालेकाछन् ।

तर यो मृगमरिचिका मात्र हो । लोडसेिडंगको अत्यधिक मारमा पूर्वााचल, मध्यमााचल र पश्चिमााचल विकास क्षेत्रहरु परेकाछन् भने मध्य पश्चिमााचल तथा सुदूर पश्चिमााचल विकास क्षेत्रहरु सापेक्षरुपमा केहि कम मारमा परेकाछन् । तर यो आयोजनास्थल सुदूर पश्चिमााचलको पश्चिमी सीमानामा पर्ने हुनाले प्रशारण संजालमा गर्नुपर्ने लगानि र दूरीको कारणले हुने अत्यधिक प्रावधिक चुहावटले पंचेश्वरको बिजुली लोडसेिडंगको अत्यधिक मारमा परेकाको उपयोगमा आउनसक्दैन । तसर्थ पंचेश्वरलाई निकासीमूलक आयोजनाकोरुपमा अगाडी बढाइंदैछ ।

यस पृष्ठभूमिमा नेपालले पंचेश्वरमा किन लगानि गर्ने भन्ने प्रश्न उठ्छ । वित्तिय हैसियतले भ्याए पनि नभ्याए पनि देशभित्र लोडसेिडंग हटाउनको लागि लगानि गर्नु जायज तथा अत्यावश्यक हो । तर वित्तिय अवस्थाले नथेग्ने भएरै बिदेशी लगानि आकर्षित गर्ने नाममा जायज नाजायज सुविधा नेपालले दिनुपरिराखको र थप सुविधा फुत्काउन घुक्र्याउने स्थिति विकास भईरहेको परिप्रेक्ष्यमा बढी सुविधा दिनै परेपनि नेपालको लोडसेिडंग समस्या निराकरण गर्न बिदेशी लगानि ल्याउन उपयुक्त हुन्छ, भारतमा लोडसेिडंगको समस्या समाधानको लागि भने निश्चय पनि होइन ।

लोडसेिडंग समस्याको गम्भिर पाटो पनि दृष्टिगत गर्न आवश्यक छ । औद्योगिकरण तथा रोजगारी श्रृजनाको अभावमा नेपालको आर्थिक बृद्धि दर ह्रासोन्मुख मात्र छैन देशका कर्मठ युवायुवति रोजगारीको लागि बिदेश पलायन भईरहेकाछन् जसको कारण मानव तस्करी, चेलीबेटी बेचबिखन बढेकोछ । नेपाली युवा श्रम शोषण, आर्थिक शोषण देखि यौन शोषण सम्ममा परिरहेकाछन् । पारिवारिक बिखण्डन भएर कलिला बालबालिकाको पालनपोषण उपेक्षित भई आगामी पुस्ताको भविष्य खतरामा परेकोछ । अत्यधिकरुपमा यौन रोग निम्तिएको छ भने बिदेशबाट पठाएको सम्पत्ति सहित पोइल अथवा जोइल जाने प्रबृत्ति बढेकोछ । यस पृष्ठभूमिमा लोडसेिडंग निराकरण गर्ने मात्र नेपालको प्राथमिकता नभएर मनग्गे बिद्युतिय उर्जा उपयोग गरेर औद्योगिकरण गर्ने नेपाली युवायुवति स्वदेश फर्काउने गरेर रोजगारी श्रृजना गर्ने, ब्यापार घाटा तथा शोधनान्तर घाटाको प्रमुख कारक पेट्रोलियम पदार्थको पैठारी घटाउन यातायातलाई बिद्युतिकरण गर्ने, कम उत्पादन बढी मांग हुने समयमा कृषि उपज आपूर्ति गर्न किसानलाई सक्षम बनाउन शीत भण्डारहरु निर्माण गर्ने, कृषि तथा जडीबुडी प्रशोधनको लागि बिद्युत सघन उद्योगहरु स्थापना गर्ने, चुनढुंगा जस्ता खनिजमा आधारित उद्योग स्थापना गर्ने हुनुपर्छ, जसको लागि ५ वर्ष पछिको लागि प्रक्षेपित १५ सय मेगावाट मात्रले पुग्दैन । अझ एमाओबादीका डा. भट्टराईले सोचे जस्तै अर्थतन्त्रले भ्यागुते छलांग लगाउनको लागि ५ वर्ष पछि नेपालले ५ हजार मेगावाट खपत गर्नुपर्छ र नेपालको कोषले भ्याउने भए यति परिमाणमा बिद्युत आयोजनामा लगानि गर्नुपर्छ नभ्याए बिदेशी लगानि आकृष्ट गरेर भएपनि गर्नुपर्छ ।

समृद्धिको लागि पंचेश्वर
महाकाली सन्धी गर्दा पंचेश्वर आयोजना बनेपछि वार्षिक १ खर्ब २० अर्ब कमाइएर पश्चिमबाट सूर्य उदाउने सपना बांडिए । पछि ४५ अर्बबाट पनि घटेर नेपाल ३५ अर्ब रुपैयाले लाभान्वित हुने भनियो । नेपालको वार्षिक बजेटको दशांस पंचेश्वरबाटै नेपालले कमाउने भए निश्चय नैं कार्यान्वयन गरिनुपर्दछ, लोडसेिडंगको समस्या खेपेर भएपनि, औद्योगिकरण तथा रोजगारीको अभावमा युवायुवति बिदेश पलायन भएतापनि । बताइए अनुसार नेपालको भागको ६ अर्ब १६ करोड युनिट बिजुली ५ रुपैया ६० पैसाको दरमा बिक्री गरिएमा नेपाल वार्षिक ३५ अर्ब रुपैयाले धनी हुन्छ । तर यो रकम बिक्रीबाट प्राप्त हुने सम्पूर्ण रकम हो र नेपाल लाभान्वित हुनेभनेको यो रकमबाट बिद्युत उत्पादन लागत कटाएर बांकी हुने प्रतिफल मात्र हो जुन पंचेश्वर विकास प्राधिकरणका कर्मचारीका अनुसार पूंजी लगानिको २५ प्रतिशत मात्र हुन्छ । अर्थात झण्डै २८ अर्ब रुपैंया पूंजी लगानि गरिएमा वार्षिक ७ अर्ब रुपैंया मात्र प्रतिफल स्वरुप प्राप्त हुनेछ, हल्ला िफंजाईए जस्तो ४५ अथवा ३५ अर्ब रुपैंया होइन ।

पश्चिम सेती आयोजनामा करीब पौने ४ अर्ब रुपैंया पूंजी लगानि गर्न एशियाली बिकास बैंकसंग नेपाल सरकारले ऋण लिन लागेको परिप्रेक्ष्यमा पंचेश्वरमा पूंजी लगानि गर्न रकमको अभाव हुने र ऋण लिनु परेमा सो ऋणमा तिर्नुपर्ने ब्याजले गर्दा वार्षिक प्रतिफल सांढे ३ अर्ब रुपैयामा खुम्चिन्छ ।

यसरी भ्रमको खेती गर्न निकासी दर ५ रुपैया ६० पैसा प्रयोग गरिएको पनि यथार्थपरक छैन । जलाशययुक्त पश्चिम सेती आयोजनाको बिजुली ५ अमेरिकि सेन्ट भन्दा कम मात्र तिर्न भारत तयार भएको पृष्ठभूमिमा पंचेश्वरको बिजुली पनि भारतले यहि दरमा मात्र आयात गरेमा कूल बिक्रीबाट २३ अर्ब रुपैंया मात्र प्राप्त हुन्छ जबकि उत्पादन लागत नैं २८ अर्ब रुपैंया पर्छ (३५ अर्ब रुपैया बिक्रीबाट प्राप्त हुने र ७ अर्ब रुपैया मुनाफा हुने हिसाबबाट) र वार्षिक ५ अर्ब नोक्सानी भई चोक्टा खान िहंड्दा झोलमा डुबेको चरितार्थ हुनेछ, नेपालमा लोड सेिडंग भएतापनि भारतमा बिजुली निकासी गरेर धनी हुने सोम शर्माको सपनाको पछि लाग्दा ।

तल्लो तटीय लाभ
सीमा नदीमा समानुपातिक हक मात्र लाग्ने तथाकथित अन्तर्राष्ट्रिय मान्यता प्राप्त सिद्धान्तको सट्टा भारतले महाकाली सन्धीमा आधा पानीमा नेपालको हक स्वीकार गरेर सहृदयता देखाएको भनेर धेरै प्रचार गरिएको थियो र यसलाई तात्विक उपलब्धी मानिएको थियो । पंचेश्वर जलाशययुक्त आयोजना हुनाले यसबाट वर्षातको पानी जलाशयमा थुनिन्छ र तल्लो तटीय क्षेत्रमा वर्षातमा बाढी नियन्त्रण हुन्छ भने सुख्खायाममा िसंचाईको लागि थप नियन्त्रित पानी उपलब्ध हुन्छ । तर यसको निर्माणोपरान्त नेपालमा ९३ हजार हेक्टर तथा भारतमा १६ लाख हेक्टर जमिनमा िसंचाई गर्ने कुरा आधिकारिक रुपमा संप्रेषण गरिएबाट आधा पानीको कुरा ओठेभक्ती मात्र हो भन्ने सिद्ध हुन्छ । यसरी झण्डै १७ लाख हेक्टर िसंचाई गर्ने पानी वर्षातको बाढी पहिरो निम्त्याउने पानी होइन, खडेरी लाग्ने सुख्खायाममा नियन्त्रित रुपमा उपलब्ध हुने थप पानी हो, जसको लागि नेपालको ८ हजार ६ सय ५० हेक्टर जमिन (जुन जलाशयको लागि आवश्यक जमिनको ४३ प्रतिशत) हो डुबानमा पारेर ६५ हजार स्थानिय बासिन्दालाई बिस्थापित गर्नुपर्छ ।

तसर्थ यसरी नेपाली नागरिक बिस्थापित हुने गरेर नेपाली भूभाग डुबाउन दुई अवस्थामा मात्र जायज मान्नसकिन्छ/स्वीकार्य हुन्छ । पहिलो, दुई छिमेकी मुलुकमा कूल १६ लाख ९३ हजार हेक्टरको आधा जमिनमा सुख्खायाममा िसंचाई गर्ने । दुई, नेपालमा आवश्यक परिमाणमा जमिन उपलब्ध नभएको लगायत कारणले भारतले आफ्नो हक लाग्ने आधा भन्दा बढी पानी सुख्खायाममा उपभोग गरे बापत अमेरिका र क्यानाडा अथवा दक्षिण अपि्रुका र लेसोथो बीच सम्पन्न सम्झौता मुताबिक रकम नेपाललाई तिर्ने । उदाहरणार्थ लेसोथोले १८ घन मिटर प्रति सेकेन्ड पानी बापत दक्षिण अपि्रुकाबाट वार्षिक अढाई करोड डलर प्राप्त गरेको अनुपातमा नेपालले वर्षमा ८ महिना आफ्नो हकको नियन्त्रित थप पानी भारतलाई उपलब्ध गराए बापत वार्षिक सांढे १७ अर्ब रुपैंया प्राप्त गर्ने । स्मरणिय छ नेपालले ६ वर्षमा यसरी पाउनुपर्ने रकम एकमुष्ठ उपलब्ध भएमा आफ्नो भागको आधा लगानि यसैबाट गर्न सक्छ ।

बाढी नियन्त्रण
तल्लो तटीय क्षेत्र, विशेष गरेर भारत, बाढी नियन्त्रणबाट धेरै बढी लाभान्वित हुन्छ जसको मौदि्रक परिमाण आकलन गरिएको छैन/आंकडा उपलब्ध छैन । क्यानाडाले कोलम्बिया नदीमा बांध निर्माण गर्न दिएर संयुक्त राज्य अमेरिकालाई बाढी नियन्त्रणबाट लाभान्वित गराएबापत ६ करोड ४४ लाख डलर प्राप्त गरेको परिप्रेक्ष्यमा नेपाली नागरिक बिस्थापित हुने गरेर नेपाली भूभाग डुबाएर भारतलाई प्राप्त हुने बाढी नियन्त्रणको लाभ पनि आकलन गरेर समुचित रकम प्राप्त हुने अवस्थामा मात्र पंचेश्वर कार्यान्वयन गरिनुपर्छ ।

पंचेश्वर किन कार्यान्वन गर्ने ?
अन्तमा नेपालले पंचेश्वरमा किन लगानि गर्ने भन्ने सम्बन्धमा स्पष्ट हुन जरुरी हुन्छ । लोडसेिडंगको समस्याले नराम्ररी गांजेको अवस्थामा कोषको समस्यै भएतापनि नेपालमा बिद्युत आपूर्ति गर्ने आयोजना प्राथमिकताका साथ कार्यान्वयन गरिनुपर्छ । साथै नेपाल र नेपालीको सर्बोच्च हित हुन्छ भने नेपालले ऋण लिएर भएपनि यसमा लगानि गर्न सकिन्छ । वर्षातमा बाढी नियन्त्रण तथा सुख्खायाममा िसंचाईको लागि नियन्त्रित पानी थप उपलब्ध भएबापत भारतले नेपाललाई रकम तिर्ने अवस्थामा ५/६ वर्ष भित्रै आयोजनाको लागत उठ्ने र त्यसपछि वार्षिक बीसौं अर्ब रुपैंया खूद आम्दानी हुने भएमा पनि यो आयोजना कार्यान्वयन गर्नु सार्थक हुनेछ । तर अहिलेको अवधारणामा नेपालको भूभाग डुबानमा पारेर जनतालाई बिस्थापित गरेर सित्तैमा भारतलाई वर्षातमा बाढी नियन्त्रणको लाभ र सुख्खायाममा भारतको हक लाग्ने आधा भन्दा बढी पानी उपलब्ध गराउनु राष्ट्रघात मात्र नभएर राष्ट्रद्रोह नैं हुनेछ र यो पुस्तालाई आगामी पुस्ताले क्षमा गर्ने छैन ।
Ratna Sansar Shrestha

२०६७ माघ ९ गतेको गोरखापत्रमा प्रकाशित

Sunday, January 16, 2011

Dreams of Jaded System and Load shedding in Nepal

The fundamental reasons behind load shedding in Nepal are lack of vision, commitment and preparation in the leadership - in both political and bureaucratic. There is no concept of vision in these people, because vision means the ability to see ahead of time and chart out the way forward. The leaders here have not only failed to understand what the problem actually is but also failed to appreciate it. Recently energy minister, speaking to the media and delivering speeches on various occasions, has claimed that there will be no load shedding in five years’ time, citing various projects that will be completed by that time. Pointing to these projects, GoN and NEA too are trying to make people believe that there will be no load shedding after five years.

According to the data provided by Nepal Electricity Authority (NEA), the peak demand of electricity after five years in Nepal will be about 1400 MW. At present, NEA’s installed capacity is 700 MW and after the completion of Upper Tamakoshi and various other hydropower projects in five years’ time, total installed capacity in the system will reach 1400 MW level. With the installed capacity equal to the peak demand of that time, they claim that there will be no load shedding. At the superficial level, they seem to be correct but in fact they are completely wrong. Last year, the peak demand was around 900 MW while the installed capacity was around 650 MW. However, the people had to face load shedding of up to 14 hrs/day as the hydropower projects were generating less than 200 MW in dry season and NEA was importing about 100 MW from India to mitigate load shedding. Most of the hydropower projects in Nepal are run of the river (RoR) projects and these produce only one third or less than one third of their actual capacity during the dry season. If we extend this logic, after five years when the peak demand will reach 1400 MW level, we will need to have installed capacity of about 4000 MW to have no or zero load shedding.

Have they identified or started implementation of projects for the additional/incremental 3000 MW? Are they going to be able to add 3,000 MW to the system by next 5 years? Unfortunately they have not. Therefore, their claim that there will be zero load shedding after five years is plain and simple lie. The minister who made this claim holds a PhD degree in economics and he should know better than to make such tall claims. He, however, can be absolved from the blame because of his lack of technical knowledge. But the people in NEA, an institution filled with thousands of technical experts, coming up with such statements regularly is very unfortunate. Therefore, as long as we have such leadership and bureaucracy, it's not just five years that we will be condemned to live in darkness, rather we will be living in the darkness for decades.

Let’s take a look at the Maoist's plan. When Puspha Kamal Dahal 'Prachanda' was prime minister, the GoN promised to build hydropower projects and generate 10,000 MW in 10 years. But building hydropower projects is not like turning an electric switch on or off. First of all, feasibility studies of identified projects needs to be conducted which takes two/three years. Then, they need to come up with necessary design, sign contracts with contractors and suppliers, and achieve financial closure. These activities too take a couple of years. And finally projects have to be actually built/implemented. Depending on the size of the project, it can take between 5-10 years. The concept was faulty in the sense that it was over ambitious to aim to build 10,000 MW in 10 years. They seem to have come up with this slogan on an ad hoc basis.

But still there was some possibility for them to succeed in building 10,000 MW in ten years as there are a number of projects in the pipeline ready to be built. But unfortunately, what the government led by Maoist failed to appreciate is that the problem of load shedding in Nepal cannot be solved by exporting power to India. Most of the projects in the pipeline are dedicated to export power to India like West Seti, Arun III, Upper Karnali and Pancheshwar projects. If they were to build all these projects they could have achieved their target of 10,000 MW but exporting electricity produced from those projects to India will not solve the problem in Nepal. It's just like cooking food in your home and feeding the neighbor’s family which will leave your family still hungry.

A reference about the positive aspect of Dr Babu Ram Bhattari's budget is warranted here. He had used the word 'leapfrogging' and that is what Nepal needs now. Today, most of the industries are not running at their full capacity and new industries aren’t coming up due to the lack of power. Hence, NEA’s load forecast is based suppressed growth. Under suppressed growth, they have forecasted the demand of 1400 MW in five years’ time. If one is to use normal growth rate, the peak demand will reach 5000 MW level in 5 years. However, what the country needs is accelerated growth which is sort of synonym of leapfrogging. We can link this to foreign employment as well. Why are people going abroad leaving their family behind causing disintegration of family? Even inviting HIV AIDS and other various problems. If we have necessary power for industrialization leading to employment generation, those people will not go overseas. They face sexual harassment, physical torture, etc. besides financial exploitation in foreign countries. That is why, Nepal needs to achieve accelerated growth.

The divergence in what I see and Dr Bhattarai sees is that if we are able to generate 10,000 MW energy in 10 years and use it in Nepal, we can achieve accelerated growth such that there will be necessary enabling environment for Nepali youth to return back home. This concept of accelerated growth is highly important but unfortunately many have failed to appreciate it. Dr Bhattarai also came up with the concept of accelerated growth but he too failed to appreciate that it is the energy is that drives the economy and in order for Nepal to leapfrog into double digit economic growth, Nepal will need to consume 10,000 MW within the country. Only this will help her industrialize such that employment is generated in abundance, trade and payment deficits are reduced by decreasing import of fossil fuel by electrification of transportation, value addition in agricultural sector is substantially increased by energizing it, agricultural cropping intensity is increased by irrigating even in dry season with the help of electricity, farmers are enriched by setting up cold stores such that they can sell their produce in off season, etc.

The political parties are even playing one-up-man-ship in fixing target for hydropower. Nepali Congress, in their manifesto, stated that they will build 5,000 MW in 10 years whereas the CPN (UML)'s manifesto was silent in this respect. The UCPN (Maoists) stated that they aimed to achieve 10,000 MW in 10 years. The current coalition government led by UML too had to say something in this respect. So they came up with the slogan of building 25,000 MW in 20 years, which is nothing more than shallow talk. We do not have necessary feasibility studies for implementing 25,000 MW in that time frame. Moreover, the current government has also failed to appreciate the fact that exporting energy to India will not solve the problem of energy crisis in Nepal, nor will it help us achieve accelerated economic growth. If we export power to India, industrialization and employment generation will take place in India and the forward linkaged benefits too will accrue to India. Therefore, present crop of leadership is unaware as to what the problem is, what is its solution is and how to solve it.

All the ministers have been and are in a hurry to build the hydropower projects irrespective of whether such projects will solve Nepal’s problems or not; or whether these benefit Nepal or not. There are a few people like me who are saying that building export oriented projects will not solve Nepal’s electricity crisis. We are not opposing these projects because we don't want them to be built; it is because they do not benefit our country and we want to ensure that these are built in Nepal’s interest. Most ministers, on the other hand, only care about commission and enriching themselves.

In this context, we also need to look at positive and negative externalities in the context of a storage project. Especially, the Budi Gandaki storage project which the current government has included in the Budget Ordinance. This project is situated in such a convenient location that necessary infrastructure like access road already exists. Building a storage project means inundation of land and displacement of people, which are negative externalities. But by building that project we can also get peak-in power; no spill of power involved. We can store water throughout the year in the reservoir and use it to generate electricity when necessary. Another positive externality of that project is availability of augmented flow of water during dry season which can be used to increase cropping intensity in the lower riparian areas to more than 3 crops in a year thereby increasing agricultural production and productivity.

If we were to look at the extant scenario in Nepal, although people say Nepal is rich in water resources, I disagree. Nepal is rich in flood for four months and drought for eight months. Some people (about one quarter of the population) have taps from which no water flows. Most don’t even have taps. By building a storage project, you will be storing water during the rainy season, thereby controlling the flood downstream – another positive externality. As water is stored in the rainy season and is released in controlled manner in the dry season, that water can be used for irrigation as well. Therefore, flood control and regulated flow of water during dry season are two positive externalities of storage project which helps to enhance the cropping intensity.

If we look at Terai region closely, they cultivate only one crop in a year as they do not have access to water for irrigation in the dry season (8 months). If we build storage project, the farmer can cultivate more than one crop in a year making them rich. By extension, the children of the farmers who had gone abroad can return back home. But the leadership has failed to conceive Budi Gandaki in this manner. They are just planning to build it as a hydropower project and send the augmented flow down to India as windfall gain for her. I strongly oppose that idea. Budi Gandaki should be built as a multi-purpose project from which electricity should be used in the peak time and regulated/augmented flow of water should be used in the Terai for irrigation in dry season. The same mistake has been committed in the case of Naumure project for which Prachanda reportedly reached an understanding with India while he was the prime minister. This project too should be built as a multipurpose project so that more than 75,000 hector land can be irrigated in Kapilvastu and neighboring districts.

There is no immediate solution for load shedding in Nepal, though it can be reduced by increased use of compact florescent lamps and by controlling and reducing leakage. There are two types of leakages: technical and non-technical leakage. The non-technical leakages are pilferage by the consumers. Controlling that is impossible for lack of law and order and rampant impunity. However, the technical leakages can be controlled to an extent. Even in advanced countries the technical leakage is about 5-6 per cent and in Nepal it is around 10-11 per cent. We can try to bring it down to 6-7 per cent. This is actually a good idea because it costs 100 million Nepali rupees to add 1 MW to the system but you can reduce technical leakage equal to 1 MW with an investment of less than 20-30 million rupees. But the problem here is due to corruption. They receive more commission by building 1 MW rather than preventing the leakage of 1 MW. Therefore, they opt to build hydropower projects rather than controlling the technical leakage.

They also build the projects in such a way that the cost overrun and time overrun renders a project a huge liability for the country rather than an asset. For instance, the Middle Marsyngadi project was estimated to cost 13 billion rupees for 70 MW power but they have already paid out 26 billion rupees to the contractors and there are still pending claims. In my reckoning the project has already cost the nation 50 billion rupees if one were to include increased cost due to additional interest during construction due to time overrun, loss of revenue etc., which is enough to build a 500 MW project. This is the saddest part of the story. The country has wasted 50 billion rupees to build just 70 MW, most of it in corruption. What aggravates the matter is the fact this will exert undue upward pressure on retail tariff which is already highest in the world if one were to compare it on the basis of purchasing power parity.
Ratna Sansar Shrestha

Based on the interview taken by and published in Greatway Magazine Vol. 2, Issue 4 (Magh 2067).

Saturday, January 8, 2011

द्रुततर आिर्थक बृद्धिका लागि जलश्रोत विकास

नेपालको हितकोलागि जलश्रोत दोहन गर्नुपर्नेमा दुईमत हुनसक्दैन, तर अहिले सम्म सम्पन्न सन्धी सम्झौताहरु कुनै पनि नेपालको हितमा भएनन् ।

बिहारमा २ लाख १४ हजार हेक्टरमा बाढी नियन्त्रणार्थ सम्पन्न कोशी सन्धी अन्तर्गत निर्मित संरचनाले नेपालको ६ हजार ८ सय हेक्टर डुबानमा पारेर १ लाख २२ हजार नेपालीलाई प्रत्यक्ष प्रभाव पारेको आकलन एक्सन एड नेपालको छ भने एस.के. मल्लका अनुसार यसबाट भारतमा ९ लाख ६९ हजार हेक्टर िसंचित हुन्छ भने नेपालमा २४ हजार ४ सय ८० हेक्टर मात्र ।

त्यस्तै नेपालको ५ सय ४२ हेक्टर जमिन डुबानमा पारेर निर्मित गण्डक नहर प्रणालीबाट भारतको बिहारमा १६ लाख हेक्टर र नेपालमा ३९ हजार हेक्टर जमिन िसंचित भएको बिबरण बिहार सरकारले सन् १९६० मा प्रकाशित गरेकोछ ।

आधा पानीमा नेपालको हक भनिएतापनि महाकाली सन्धीले साँढे ३ प्रतिशतमा खुम्च्यायो । नेपालको ८ हजार ६ सय ५० हेक्टर जमिन (आवश्यक मध्ये ४३ प्रतिशत) डुबानमा पारिएर ६५ हजार नेपाली बिस्थापित हुनेगरी निर्मार्णाधीन पाचेश्वर परियोजना अन्तर्गत नेपालमा ९३ हजार हेक्टर र भारतमा १६ लाख हेक्टर िसंचित हुन्छ ।

जनआक्रोस स्वाभाविकै ठहरिने गरेर यी सन्धीहरु हदै सम्म असमान भएको प्रष्टिन्छ । अनि सर्बोच्च अदालतले टनकपुर सन्धी सम्बन्धमा २०४७ सालको सम्बिधानको धारा १२६ अन्तर्गत संसदीय अनुमोदन अनिवार्य ठहर् याए पछि यो प्रकृया छल्नैको लागि पश्चिम सेती, माथिल्लो कर्णाली र अरुण तेश्रो सम्बन्धमा निजी क्षेत्रका कम्पनीहरुसंग सम्झौताहरु गरिएकाछन् जुन पनि नेपालको हितमा छैनन् ।

यस पृष्ठभूमिमा नेपालको हितमा जलश्रोत विकासको खाका कोर्नुपर्ने हुन्छ । यस सम्बन्धमा एउटा आयोजना विशेषको मोडेल प्रस्तुत गरिएमा बुझ्न सजिलो हुनेहुनाले जलाशययुक्त पश्चिम सेती आयोजनाको मोडेल यहां प्रस्तुत गरिएकोछ, जसमा १ अर्ब ५६ करोड घन मिटर वर्षातको पानी संचित भएर तल्लो तटीय क्षेत्र दुई किसिमले लाभान्वित हुन्छ । वर्षातमा ४ महिना बाढी नियन्त्रण भएर र सुख्खायाममा ८ महिना िसंचाई गर्नको लागि ९० घन मिटर प्रति सेकेन्ड पानी नियन्त्रितरुपमा थप उपलब्ध भएर ।

तल्लो तटीय क्षेत्रमा बाढी नियन्त्रणबाट के कति रकमले लाभान्वित हुन्छ भन्ने सम्बन्धमा आंकडाको अभाव छ । तर सुख्खायाममा नियन्त्रित रुपमा उपलब्ध हुने पानी (जुन पानीले धान वाहेकको पानी फारो हुने खेती गरेमा २ लाख ७० हजार हेक्टर िसंचाई हुन्छ) बापत लेसोथो र दक्षिण अपि्रुका बीच तोकिएको दर प्रयोग गर्दा भारतबाट नेपालले वार्षिक ८ करोड ३३ लाख डलर बराबर ६ अर्ब २५ करोड रुपैया प्राप्त हुनुपर्ने देखिन्छ ।

स्मरणिय छ, जलाशयमा संचित पानी बाढी ल्याउने वर्षातको पानी होइन जुन बगेर जांदा आर्थिक/वित्तिय हिसाबले खेर गएको ठहर्दैन । वर्षातको पानीले बरु बाढी, पहिरो, भूस्खलन ल्याउंछ र धनजन नोक्सानी गराउंछ । जलाशयबाट नियन्त्रित रुपमा पानी उपलब्ध गराउन नेपालको ३ हजार हेक्टर जमिन डुब्छ र करीब १३ हजार बिस्थापित हुन्छन् । तसर्थ नेपाली जनता विस्थापित हुने गरेर, नेपालको भूभाग डुबाउनाको औचित्य दुई अवस्थामा मात्र हुन्छ । पानीबाट भारतको तल्लो तटीय क्षेत्र लाभान्वित हुने अवस्थामा माथि उल्लिखित रकम नेपालले पाउने भएमा अथवा यस आयोजनालाई बहुउद्देश्यीय बनाएर िसंचाईबाट नेपाल नैं लाभान्वित भएर नेपालमा खाद्य सुरक्षा सुनिश्चित गर्न ।

यस आयोजनाको लागत एक अर्ब २० करोड डलर मध्ये ९० करोड डलर ऋण लिएमा ३० करोड डलर पूंजी लगानि गर्नुपर्छ । जुन रकम ४ वर्ष भन्दा कम समय सुख्खायाममा थप पानी उपलब्ध गराए बापत भारतबाट प्राप्त हुनुपर्ने रकम बराबर हो । तर यस्तो रकम तिर्न भारतले नचाहेमा नेपालको यस भेगको खेतीयोग्य जमिनको आवश्यकता अनुरुप यो आयोजनाको बांधको उचाई घटाएर जलाशयमा संचित हुने पानीको परिमाण कम गरेर डुबानमा पर्ने जमिनको क्षेत्रफल र बिस्थापितको संख्या समेत घट्ने गरेर कार्यान्वयन गर्नुपर्छ ।

यसबाट उत्पादन हुने उच्च गुणस्तरको वार्षिक ३ अर्ब ६३ करोड युनिट बिजुली बेमौसमी फलपुूलले झैं सापेक्षरुपमा बढी मूल्य पाउंछ । नेपालले अहिले सस्तोमा प्रति युनिट ७ रुपैया ८० पैसा र महंगोमा १० रुपैया ७२ पैसामा आयात गरिहेकोमा यो आयोजनाको बिजुली भारतमा ३ रुपैया ५० पैसामा निकासी गर्ने बन्दोबस्त प्रबद्र्धकले गरेकोमा पनि धेरै आक्रोशित छन् । यत्ति गुणस्तरको बिजुली पेट्रोलिमय पदार्थबाट उत्पादन गर्दा प्रति युनिट २५ रुपैया भन्दा बढी पर्ने परिप्रेक्ष्यमा बिस्थापित लागत (अंग्रेजीमा अभ्वाईडेड कष्ट) भन्दा धेरै कममा निकासी गर्दा नेपालले पाउने रोयल्टी लगायतका राजश्वमा पनि ठगिन्छ । यो आयोजना सम्पन्न हुने बेला सम्ममा यसको सबै बिजुली नेपालमा नैं खपत हुने विश्लेषण १० हजार मेगावाट कार्यदलले समेत गरेकोले भारतमा सस्तोमा निकासी गर्न उचित छैन ।

यसको बिजुलीबाट शीत भण्डार निर्माण गरेर किसानले कृषि उपजको समुचित मूल्य पाउने व्यवस्था गर्नुपर्छ । कृषि प्रशोधन उद्योग स्थापना गरेर रोजगारी सृजना गरी अर्थतन्त्रलाई लाभान्वित गराउन सकिन्छ । जस्तै अहिले नेपालमा वन फडानी गरेर हरियो चिया प्रशोधन नगन्य रुपमा हुनेमा नेपालमा बिजुलीबाट प्रशोधित चिया उत्पादन तथा निकासी गरेर पनि लाभान्वित हुनुपर्छ । १ किलो फलाम पगालेर स्टील उत्पादन गर्न औसत ६ युनिट मात्र बिजुली खपत हुनेमा १ किलो चिया तयार पार्न औसत ८ युनिट बिजुली खपत हुनेहुनाले चिया प्रशोधन पनि उर्जासघन उद्योग हो । यस्तै मनग्गे बिजुलीबाट कृषीको लागि आवश्यक मल कारखाना, चुन ढुङ्गा खानीमा आधारित सिमन्टी कारखाना समेत संचालन गरेर देशको औद्योगिकरण गर्न सकिन्छ । यसबाट देश भित्रै यथेष्ट रोजगारी श्रृजना भएर बिदेश पलायन भएर श्रम तथा यौन शोषणमा समेत परेका युवायुवति नेपाल फर्कने वातावरण बन्नेछ ।

नेपालको ब्यापार तथा शोधनानन्तर घाटामा पेट्रोलियम पदार्थको ठूलो भूमिका छ । यातायातको बिद्युतिकरण गरेर पनि जलश्रोतबाट नेपाल लाभान्वित हुनुपर्छ । स्मरणिय छ १ टन सामान ट्रकबाट १ किलोमिटर ढुवानी गर्न २ हजार किलोजूल उर्जा खपत हुन्छ भने रेलबाट २ सय २१ किलोजूल मात्र । यसबाट ढुवानी लागत घट्नाले समेत नेपाली अर्थतन्त्र लाभान्वित हुन्छ । साथै कार्बन उत्सर्जन घटेर नेपालले लिने लाभ अलग्गै छ ।

नेपालको मध्य तथा उच्च पहाडी भूभागमा निर्माण हुने जलाशययुक्त आयोजनाहरुबाट बिजुली र िसंचाईबाट लाभान्वित हुनाको अतिरिक्त जलमार्गको संजाल पनि विकास हुन्छ । १ टन सामान जलमार्गबाट १ किलोमिटर ढुवानी गर्दा ३ सय ३७ किलोजूल मात्र उर्जा खपत भएर पनि ढुवानी लागत घटेर मुलुक लाभान्वित हुन्छ । यी जलाशयहरुबाट सुख्खायाममा समेत पिउन तथा सरसफाईको लागि मनग्गे पानी उपलब्ध भएर जनस्वास्थ्यमा सुधार आउनाको अतिरिक्त मत्स्यपालनबाट पनि रोजगारी सृजना हुन्छ ।

समग्रमा जलश्रोत विकासको यो मोडेलबाट खाद्य सुरक्षा तथा उर्जा सुरक्षा मात्र सुनिश्चित नभएर देश द्रुत गतिमा औद्योगिकरण भई यथेष्ट रोजगारी श्रृजना समेत भएर देश आत्मनिर्भर हुनाको अतिरिक्त आर्थिक बृद्धि दर पनि तात्विक रुपमा बृद्धि हुन्छ । साथै बिजुली सुपथ दरमा उपलब्ध भई उत्पादन लागत घटेर तथा जलमार्गको उपयोग र यातायातको बिद्युतिकरणबाट ढुवानि लागत पनि घट्न गई मुद्रा स्फीतिमा समेत सकारात्मक प्रभाव पर्नेछ ।

२०६७ पौष २४ गतेको अभियान दैनिकमा प्रकाशित डा प्रकाशचन्द्र लोहनीद्वारा सम्पादित (अतिथि)

Ratna Sansar Shrestha

Thursday, January 6, 2011

Re: [NNSD] Police promotion

January 6, 2011
Ram Babu Nepal

The Hague, The Netherlands


Ram Babujee



Thanks a lot for your solidarity. However, I am apprehensive that our voice is likely to turn into a “crying in the wilderness.”

With best regards,

Sincerely,


Ratna Sansar Shrestha, FCA
Senior Water Resource Analyst
http:www.RatnaSansar.com/

From: NNSD@yahoogroups.com [mailto:NNSD@yahoogroups.com] On Behalf Of Ram Babu Nepal
Sent: Monday, January 3, 2011 14:03
To: NNSD@yahoogroups.com
Subject: {Disarmed} Re: [NNSD] Police promotion


Dear All,

Namaskar

I express solidarity in Ratna Sansarji's initiative. I consider that the unfair treatment should be highlighted also to the Home Minister because he made the decision. Although, the Prime Minister has the role to keep oversight over the actions of Ministers, first hand approach should be made to the official who made the decision.


With best wishes,

Ram Babu Nepal
The Hague, The Netherlands
Phone No. 00 31 70 3615082

Wednesday, January 5, 2011

RE: [NNSD] Police promotion

Now there is talk of taking disciplinary action against SP Kharel. I wonder how that could be justified! This is double punishment; not only depriving a deserving person promotion due to him but punishing him for daring to raise question against unfair treatment being meted out. This will adversely impact the morale of upright police officers of integrity.


It reminds me of an analogy where a person calling the head of state a fool is punished. He wasn’t punished for calling the VIP a fool. Rather, he was punished for leaking state secret!

With best regards,


Sincerely,

Ratna Sansar Shrestha, FCA
Senior Water Resource Analyst
http:www.RatnaSansar.com/

From: NNSD@yahoogroups.com [mailto:NNSD@yahoogroups.com] On Behalf Of Pant, Premraj
Sent: Tuesday, January 4, 2011 10:44
To: NNSD@yahoogroups.com
Subject: {Disarmed} RE: [NNSD] Police promotion
I think all should respect only the correct decisions, if SP Kharel is deprived being eligible for promotion it is not fair with him.

The issue is how to determine which one is the correct decision and CS to fights for a correct decision. In a society where civil societies still are questioned and struggling to prove its neutrality, means scenario is a divide & biased presence of CS on the basis of political alliance or faith. There is a much more need in CS to prove where they stand. Then only its pressure will have one voice to work for a correct matter, not for an attitude of gaining popularity by raising the issue only. Perhaps it’s a straight forward, only some like.
Prem Pant

Tuesday, January 4, 2011

Re: [NNSD] Police promotion

January 4, 2011
Prof. Dr. Mohan Lohani
Tribhuvan University


Dear Prof. Lohani

The matter is not only important from SP Kharel’s personal perspective. It is important in order to ensure that upright police officers of integrity aren’t demoralized. As it is Police Force is notorious for corruption (as is the other arms of government for lack of good governance) and there are a very few in this organization who haven’t mortgaged their integrity. Therefore, it is incumbent upon the civil society to ensure that an officer isn’t penalized for maintaining his integrity.

You have asked the right question as to “if there is anybody who listens to people’s voice?” But we if we don’t raise our voice then they won’t even hear it. Therefore, it is important for us to raise our voice so that they at least hear it and then we have to work hard such that they are forced to listen to us. For this purpose, lone voice will not achieve much. We need to raise our voice in unison. Thanks a lot for adding your voice.

With best regards,


Sincerely,


Ratna Sansar Shrestha, FCA
Senior Water Resource Analyst
http:www.RatnaSansar.com/

From: Mohan Lohani [mailto:m_p_lohani@yahoo.com]
Sent: Monday, January 3, 2011 6:53
To: rsansar@mos.com.np
Cc: NNSD@yahoogroups.com
Subject: {Disarmed} Re: [NNSD] Police promotion


Dear Ratna Sansarji,

As usual,you have pleaded for the right cause and Police officer Kharel ,if he does not have other complaints against him,deserves promotion..But,is there anybody who listens to people's voice?

Mohan Lohani


--- On Sun, 1/2/11, Amod Dixit wrote:


From: Amod Dixit
Subject: Re: [NNSD] Police promotion
To: NNSD@yahoogroups.com
Date: Sunday, January 2, 2011, 4:43 AM


I join RS Shrestha in making this request.

Amod

On Sun, Jan 2, 2011 at 1:10 PM, Ratna Sansar Shrestha wrote:



Mr Bishnu Rijal

Press Advisor to PM

Monday, January 3, 2011

Re: [NNSD] Promotion in Police Force

January 3, 2011
Madhav Ghimire
Chief Secretary
Government of Nepal.

Dear Madhav jee

People are outraged to learn about the injustice being meted out to SP Ramesh Kharel. People in Nepal have come to learn of him as an upright officer of integrity. Therefore, we seek your intervention to ensure that personnel as such aren’t demoralized.

With best regards,

Sincerely,


Ratna Sansar Shrestha, FCA
Senior Water Resource Analyst
http:www.RatnaSansar.com/

From: Ratna Sansar Shrestha [mailto:rsansar@mos.com.np]
Sent: Monday, January 3, 2011 7:30
To: 'NNSD@yahoogroups.com'
Subject: RE: {Disarmed} Re: [NNSD] Police promotion


Binodjee

Thanks a lot for your solidarity.

Time has come for ‘we, "The NNSD Group"’ to make our mark, by going beyond, as you have aptly put it, “just writing and exchanging emails”.

We all know that, as it is, the promotion policy in Nepal follows Peter Principle under which “a person will rise to their level of incompetence” but situation gets aggravated when people of sound integrity are superseded in promotions. Therefore, each member of this group needs to raise the matter with the establishment forcefully. I have already sent emails to Leela Mani Paudyal and Bishnu Rijal. Now I am planning to forward this email to Madhav Ghimire.


With best regards,


Sincerely,


Ratna Sansar Shrestha, FCA
Senior Water Resource Analyst
http:www.RatnaSansar.com/

From: NNSD@yahoogroups.com [mailto:NNSD@yahoogroups.com] On Behalf Of Binod Bhatta
Sent: Sunday, January 2, 2011 19:05
To: NNSD@yahoogroups.com
Subject: {Disarmed} Re: [NNSD] Police promotion

I stand by Ratna Sansar ji for this cause and salute him for this initiative. This is not simply a case of promotion of one police officer rather it has much wider implication. If Mr. Kharel is denied of justice, it will again rock the trust of good, honest and sincere people in government service (who are rare to find). This has two fold negative impact, more people will be motivated to become sycophants while good people will be demotivated to work sincerely. They will also start neglecting their duty even if they cannot become one of the sycophants.

Is there anything that we "The NNSD Group" can do in this regard. Can we go beyond just writing and exchanging emails?

Binod

--- On Sun, 1/2/11, Ratna Sansar Shrestha wrote:



From: Ratna Sansar Shrestha
Subject: [NNSD] Police promotion
To: "NNSD"
Date: Sunday, January 2, 2011, 1:25 PM

Mr Bishnu Rijal

Sunday, January 2, 2011

Promotion in Police Force

January 2, 2011
Mr Leela Mani Paudyal
Secretary
Prime Minister's Office

Dear Leela Manijee



The captioned news has drawn my attention and I am a bit concerned. Therefore, I have sent following email to PM's press advisor; my only contact at PM's secretariat. I am forwarding this email to you in order to draw your attention to the unjust action. I would appreciate it if you could do something to redress the injustice meted out to in this case.
With best regards,



Sincerely,



Ratna Sansar Shrestha, FCA
Senior Water Resource Analyst
http:www.RatnaSansar.com/



----- Original Message -----
From: Ratna Sansar Shrestha
To: NNSD
Sent: Sunday, January 2, 2011 13:10
Subject: Promotion in Police Force

Mr Bishnu Rijal
Press Advisor to PM
Prime Minister's Office



Dear Bishnu Rijaljee


People in Nepal are distressed to learn that SP Ramesh Kharel was superseded in the promotion of police officers recently. People have come to learn that he is a police officer of integrity and, therefore, a deserving candidate for promotion. Therefore, we request you to do your level best to redress the unjust treatment meted out to him.

Thanks a lot.

With best regards,

Sincerely,



Ratna Sansar Shrestha, FCA
Senior Water Resource Analyst
http:www.RatnaSansar.com/

Saturday, January 1, 2011

अझ दशौं वर्ष लोडसेडिङ हट्दैन

लोडसेडिङभनेको बिजुलीको मांग र आपूर्ति बीच सामजस्य नहुंदा सृजना हुने समस्या हो । कुनै पनि वस्तुको माग अनुसारको आपूर्ति हुन सकेन भने हाहाकारको स्थिति सिर्जना हुन्छ । लोडसेडिङ भनेको पनि एक किसिमको हाहाकार नै हो । लोडसेडिङ अर्थात विद्युतमा हाहाकार ।

कतिपय बस्तुहरुको हकमा आजको माग कति छ भन्ने कुरासम्म थाहा हुँदैन । तर विद्युतमा भने दशकौं दशक पछिको मागको समेत पूर्वानुमान गर्न सकिन्छ । त्यसकारण अनुमानित मागलाई पूर्ति गर्ने गरी उत्पादन बढाउँदै लैजानु पर्ने हुन्छ । तर भविष्यको मागलाई वेवास्ता गर्दै गएको कारणले यस किसिमको चरम ऊर्जा संकटको अवस्थाबाट देश गुज्रनु परेको हो ।

लोडसेडिङ नयाँ चिज पक्कै पनि होइन । माग अनुरुपको उत्पादन क्षमता बढाउँदै गइएन भने समस्या आइलाग्छ भन्ने कुराको ज्ञान नभएको पनि होइन । तर नेपालमा बढ्दो मागलाई संबोधन गर्ने गरी विद्युत उत्पादन सम्बन्धी सरकारी तवरबाट खासै कुनै योजना अगाडि बढाइएन ।

निकृष्ट कुरा गर्ने हो भने सरकारका कुनै पनि मन्त्री अथवा सचिवहरुले आफू शक्ति र सत्तामा रहुन्जेल फटाफट काम सिध्याएर भटाभट पैसा कुम्ल्याउन मिल्ने काम मात्र गरे । तर देशलाई फाइदा हुने खालका दीर्घकालिन आयोजना बनाएर खासै उल्लेख्य काम कसैले गरेनन् । त्यसकै फलस्वरुप आजको समस्या देखा परेको हो ।

विद्युत आयोजनाकै कुरा गर्दा त्यो जलविजद्युत आयोजना पनि हुन सक्छ, त्यस्तै डिजेलबाट विद्युत निकाल्ने आयोजना पनि हुन सक्छ । जलविद्युत आयोजनाका लागि लामो समय लाग्नेमा त कुनै दुईमत नै रहेन । तर जिडेलबाट संचालन गरिने आयोजनाहरु सम्पन्न हुन पनि कम्तिमा एक दुई वर्ष लाग्दछ । त्यसैले छिटो छिटो गर्छु भनेर केही हुनेवाला छैन । यसका लागि योजनावद्ध किसिमले अगाडि बढ्नुपर्ने हुन्छ । हामी काम समयमा गर्दैनौं । ढिलो भएपछि सबै काम हतारमा गछौ । तसर्थ हामी सँधै अपरिपक्व काम गर्दै आइरहेका छौं । हतार गरेर केही हाँसिल हुनेवाला छैन । सही काम सही समयमा सही तरिकाले गर्न सक्यौं भने मात्रै देश विकासको गतिलाई सही विन्दुमा पुर् याउन सकिन्छ ।

विद्युत प्राधिकरणका कर्मचारीहरु ऊर्जा मन्त्रालयका कर्मचारी तथा स्वयं ऊर्जामन्त्री समेत अबको करिब पाँच वर्षको अवधिमा लोडसेडिङको समस्या समाप्त भएर जाने घोषणा गर्दै हिडेका छन् । तर सरकारको काम गर्ने शैलीलाई हेर्दा अबको दशौं वर्षसम्म यो समस्या यथावत रहने स्पष्ट देखिन्छ । ऊर्जा संकट समाधान गर्ने निश्चित विधि र प्रकि्रया हुन्छन् । काम गर्ने निश्चित शैली हुन्छ । बोलेर मात्रै लोडसेडिङ समाप्त हुनेभए उहिल्यै भइसक्थ्यो । तर गफ मात्रै गरेर समस्याको समाधान हुँदैन । त्यसका लागि काम गर्नुपर्ने हुन्छ ।

एउटा अर्को दुर्भाग्यपूर्ण प्रसंगको उद्घाटन गर्न चाहन्छु । यहाँ जे जति पनि आयोजनाहरु हुदैछन् । ती मध्ये अधिकांश नेपालको लागि होइनन् । नेपालमा विद्युत खपत गर्ने उद्देश्यले यहाँ धेरै जसो आयोजनाहरु निर्माणाधीन छैनन् । यी सबै आयोजनाहरु भारतमा विद्युत निकासीको उद्देश्यले निर्माण गरिएका हुन् । आयोजना निर्माणको एकमात्र प्रयोजन भारत निकासी गर्नु हो र भारतको लोड सेडिङ समस्याको समाधान गर्नु हो । पूर्वमा अरुण तेस्रो, मध्यमााचल र पश्चिमााचलको सीमानामो बुढी गण्डकी, मध्य पश्चिमााचलको माथिल्लो कर्णाली, सुदूर पश्चिमााचलको पश्चिम सेती र पाचेश्वर लगायतका नेपालमा निर्माणाधिन सम्पूर्ण आयोजनाहरु भारतकै लागि भनेर कार्यान्वयन गरिन लागेका हुन् ।

सम्बन्धित कर्मचारी तथा मन्त्रीको भनाई अनुसार पनि अबको पाँच वर्षमा नेपालको लोडसेडिङको समस्या समाप्त हुनका लागि निर्माणाधिन यी सम्पूर्ण आयोजनाहरु निर्वाध रुपमा सम्पन्न हुनुपर्दछ । साथै उत्पादित सम्पूर्ण विद्युत नेपालमा उपयोग गरिनुपर्छ । तर उत्पादित सो विद्युत नेपालमा प्रयोग गरिने कुनै संकेत देखिदैन । जसरी अर्कोले खाएर हाम्रो पेट भरिँदैन ठीक त्यसरी नै भारतको लागि विद्युत उ्त्पादन गरेर नेपालको लोडसेडिङ घट्दैन ।

केही दिन अघि विद्युत प्राधिकरणले दुई वटा कम्पनीसँग विद्युत खरिद सम्झौता गरेको छ । एउटा जीएमआरसँग ६ सय मेगावाटको माथिल्लो मस्यांङदी दोश्रोको लागि र अर्को भिलवारा गु्रपसँग ५० मेगावाटको बलेफी आयोजनाको लागि । भारत लैजाने प्रशारण संरचना तयार नहोउन्जेल नेपालको लागि र संरचना तयार भइसकेपछि भारत नैलाने सर्तमा सो सम्झौता गरिएको छ । त्यसकारण केही समयका लागि हामीलाई झुक्याउन सक्छन् । तर पूर्वाधार निर्माण भइसकेपछि उत्पादित सम्पूर्ण विद्युत भारत निकासी हुनेछ । तसर्थ यी आयेाजनाहरु नेपालको नभई भारतको लोडसेडिङ घटाउने उद्देश्यले कार्यान्वयन गर्न लागेको हो । आयोजना कार्यान्वयन होउन्जले भारत जाने प्रसारण लाइन बनिसक्छ । त्यसपछि विद्युत भारत निकासी हुन्छ । यो सत्य घाम जस्तै छर्लङ्ग छ ।

अबको पाँच वर्षमा नेपालको आवश्यकता करिब १२/१३ सय मेगावाट हुन्छ । माथिल्लो तामाकोसी लगायतका आयोजना बनिसकेपछि हाम्रो कूल जडान क्षमता १५ सय मेगावाट जति हुन्छ । यसरी हेर्दा पाँच वर्षको अवधिमा लोडसेडिङ समाप्त हुने देखिन्छ । यही तथ्यांकलाई आधार बनाएर सरकारी अधिकारीहरु निर्धारित समयसीमा भित्रमा लोडसेडिङको समस्या समाप्त भएर जाने कुरा ढुक्क भएर बोल्दैछन् । तर वास्तविकता अर्कै छ । सुख्खा याममा जलबिद्युत आयोजनाबाट जडित क्षमता अुनसारको विद्युत उत्पादन हुँदैन । अहिलेकै उदाहरण हेरौं । अहिले नेपालको उत्पादन क्षमता करिब सात सय मेगावाटको हाराहारीमा छ । अहिलेको उच्चतम माग करिब नौ सय मेगावाट छ । तर एक दुई सय मेगावाटको मात्रै अभाव भएर लोड सेिडंग भएको छैन । सात सय मेगावाट जडित क्षमता रहेकोमा अहिले करिब करिब तीन सय मेगावाट जति मात्रै विद्युत उत्पादन भइरहेको छ र फाल्गुण चैतमा अझ कम बिजुली उत्पादन हुन्छ । तसर्थ सुक्खा याममा कूल क्षमताको एकतिहाइ माग मात्रै उत्पादन गर्न सकिन्छ । त्यसैले करिब १२ सय मेगावाट माग रहेकोमा १५ सय मेगावाट जडित क्षमताले सम्पूर्ण लोडसेडिङको समस्या समाप्त पार्छ भनेर गर्वका साथ घोषणा गर्दै हिड्नुमा कुनै तुक छैन । १२ सय मेगावाट उच्चतम माँग पूर्ति गर्न ३५ सय मेगावाट जति जडित क्षमता आवश्यक हुन्छ । त्यसकारण मन नलागि नलागि र बडो दुःखका साथ मैले भन्नपर्ने हुन्छ कि नेपाल विद्युत प्राधिकरणका कर्मचारीहरु ऊर्जा मन्त्रालयका कर्मचारीहरु र स्वयं ऊर्जामन्त्री समेत झुट बोल्दै हिडिरहेका छन् । किनकि १५ सय मेगावाट जडित क्षमताले सुख्खा याममा पाँच सय मेगावाट विद्युत पनि उत्पादन गर्न सक्दैन । जबकि त्यतिखेर उच्चतम माग १२ सय मेगावाट हुने प्राधिकरणको प्रक्षेपण छ ।

त्यसैले लोडसेडिङ अवश्यम्भावी छ भन्ने तथ्यतिर कसैको पनि ध्यान जान सकेको देखिदैन । अब थोरै लगानीको विषयमा चर्चा गरौं । जलविद्युत भनेको पूजी प्रधान उद्योग हो । यसको लागि धेरै ठूलो परिमाणमा पुँजी लाग्छ । मानिसहरु विद्युत उत्पादन भनेको चानचुने कुरा हो भने जस्तो गरेर कुरा गर्छन । तर एक मेगावाट मात्रै उत्पादन गर्न पनि १५ करोड रुपैया लाग्छ । म चुनौतिका साथ भन्छु कि नेपालका नामूद व्यापारिक घरानालाई पनि एकल लगानीमा एक मेगावाट विजुली उत्पादन गर्ने क्षमता उनीहरुमध्ये कसैमा पनि छैन । जबकि १५ करोड पूरै नगद लगानी गर्नु पर्दैन । १० करोड जति बैंकबाट सापट लिन मिल्छ र ५ करोड पूंजी स्वरुप लगानि गर्नु पर्छ । तर नेपालका कुनै पनि व्यवसायीमा एक्लैको पाँच करोड नगद लगानी गर्ने क्षमता छैन ।

मैले यसो भनिरहँदा नेपालमा लगानी गर्न पैसा नै नभएको भने पक्कै होइन । यहाँ पर्याप्त पैसा छ । बैंक तथा वित्तीय संस्थाहरुमा मात्रै पनि करिब साढे छ खर्ब रुपैया छ । यसको १० प्रतिशत मात्रै आए पनि करिब ६५ अर्ब रुपैयाँ हुन्छ । सो लगानीमा करिब ६ सय ५० मेगावाट जडित क्षमताको जलबिद्युत आयोजना निर्माण गर्न सकिन्छ । त्यस्तै नागरिक लगानी कोष कर्मचारी संचय कोष जस्ता संस्थाहरु समेत गरेर करिब सात आठ सय अर्ब रुपैया भयो भने र त्यसको पनि केवल १० प्रतिशत मात्रै लगानी गरियो भने पनि करिब सात आठ सय मेगावाट जडित क्षमताको जलबिद्युत आयोजना निर्माण गर्न सकिन्छ । त्यस्तै वार्षिक करिब अढाइ सय अर्ब रुपैया रेमिटान्सको रुपमा भित्रिदैछ । यो आधिकारिक स्रोतबाट आउने रेमिटान्सको आँकडा हो । तर अन्य स्रोतबाट कति आउँछ त्यसको कुनै लेखाजोखासम्म छैन । यसको पनि १० प्रतिशत मात्र जलबिद्युत क्षेत्रमा लगानि गरे वार्षिक २५० मेगावाट जडित क्षमताको जलबिद्युत आयोजना निर्माण गर्न पैसा पुग्छ । त्यसकारण यहाँ पैसाको पनि खासै अभाव देखिदैन । अभाव छ त केवल जिम्मेवारीबोधको, बौद्धिकताको, इमान्दारीताको र सच्चरित्रताको । साँच्चै भन्ने हो भने यहाँ अभाव छ केवल देशभक्तीको भावनाको । यसकै दुष्परिणाम हामी वर्षौंदेखि भोग्र्दै आएका छौं । तैपनि सपना देख्ने छुट सबैलाई छ । आशा गरौं - हाम्रो उज्यालो भविष्य नजिकै छ ।
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